USDCHF – Forex trading crowds remain net-long the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc, giving us contrarian signal that the pair may yet fall to fresh lows.
Yet we aren’t quite as bearish the USDCHF as we are bullish the EURUSD. Our SSI studies notwithstanding, we believe that the US Dollar stands to fall further against ‘riskier’ currencies. The Swiss Franc and US Dollar are both considered safe-haven currencies. The Swissie stands to benefit less on recent US S&P 500 rallies than the Euro or Australian Dollar. We expect the USD may continue to weaken, but in this author’s opinion there are better trades out there than USDCHF short positions.
How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.
--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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