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Gold Price Outlook: XAU Bears Grind into Support at Fresh 2019 Lows

Gold Price Outlook: XAU Bears Grind into Support at Fresh 2019 Lows

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold prices are down 2.5% from the April high with a four-day decline now testing fresh yearly lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU Daily - GLD 4/17/2019

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that, “From a trading standpoint, the risk remains weighted to the downside while below 1302 but ultimately, a larger setback should offer more favorable entries closer to the yearly range lows.” Price is probing this support zone now at 1275/76 – a region defined by the January opening-range low and the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 advance.

A break / close below this threshold is needed to keep the immediate short-bias viable targeting the 2018 slope (red) and a more significant support confluence at 1253/58 – an area of interest for possible gold price exhaustion IF reached. Monthly open resistance stands at 1292 with bearish invalidation steady at 1302.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold 120min Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU 120min - GLD 4/17/2019

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the March / April highs with a four-day decline taking gold within pips of the lower parallel. Yearly open resistance stands at 1280 backed by the 38.2% retracement / median-line at 1287- a rally surpassing this zone would shift the focus towards subsequent objectives at the weekly opening-range high at 1292 & the 61.8% retracement at 1296. Support rests with the lower parallel, currently around ~1268 backed by the 100% extension at 1258 and the 50% retracement at 1253 – both levels of interest for exhaustion / long-entries IF reached.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Gold is approaching down-trend support just lower at the objectively yearly range lows and leaves the immediate short-bias at risk while above 1275- expecting side-ways to lower price action / look for a bigger reaction on a test of slope support. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- IF price is indeed heading lower, look for failure / exhaustion ahead of the median-line on a recovery here. Keep in mind we’ll have to re-adjust the Fib levels if a new low is registered. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU Price Chart - GLD Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.24 (76.4% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are4.2% higher than yesterday and 6.3% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 5.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week andthe combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold (XAU/USD) trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.