Crude Oil Price Forecast: Lower Levels Look Just Ahead
Crude Oil Technical Highlights:
Check out the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook in the Q3 Crude Oil Forecast.
WTI crude next stop could soon be 50
Crude oil hasn’t been the easiest handle as of late, but while price action has been on the choppy side the general tone of oil appears fairly clear; sellers are generally in control. Rallies from here aren’t expected to last and likely to fade quickly.
Staying below 57.43 for now will be somewhat critical to this outlook given the three recent failures near that level. However, even if this level is breached on a closing basis there is still a trend-line extending down from the October 2018 high that could very well contain any attempt to continue advancing.
Looking lower, the August 26 low at 52.99 is next up as price support, with a minor trend-line off last month’s low currently in play. A break below price support will have the area just above 50 in play as support. Given how oil has been trading it would be no surprise to see that hold upon another test before potentially breaking down to the 2016 trend-line.
Tactically speaking, the tone is negative and shorting rallies that begin to fade will likely be the best approach to taking advantage of further weakness. Momentum may be lacking for the most part, but that could certainly change, especially if stocks experience another round of hard selling.
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (leaning towards the 50-mark)
Brent has eyes for long-term trend-line
Brent continues to be the downside leader. It is currently working on a break below 58.34, which will put in a near-term lower-low and strengthen the downside bias. The near-term target on more selling is the January 2016 trend-line/August low confluence at 55.97. To turn around the outlook around a break above 61.57 will first be needed, but event then the UK contract has its work cut out for it to trade higher.
Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart (another swing lower looks to be in progress)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.