News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The recent rebound in USD/CAD appears to be stalling ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first meeting for 2021 as it quickly pulls back from a fresh weekly high (1.2782). Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • White House plans call with congressional problem solvers caucus on Tuesday to discuss $1.9trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill
  • $GBPCHF has strengthened today, rising from a morning low around 1.2105 to currently trade around 1.2190. The pair is currently testing its highest levels since the onset of the Covid pandemic. $GBP $CHF
  • ECB's Villeroy says we monitor carefully the implications of the exchange rate on the inflation outlook $EUR
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.63% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.49% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.42% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.29% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via
  • Poll: Which of these extraordinarily volatile and recently popular assets is most disconnected from 'traditional fundamentals' and fully in the hands of the speculative tribe?
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 2.01% France 40: 1.51% FTSE 100: 0.51% Wall Street: 0.15% US 500: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via
  • The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence survey edged up with this morning's January reading, but that marginal uptick can't touch the impressive charge of speculative conviction via the likes of the $SPX
  • $AUDUSD has strengthened by around 50 pips this morning, climbing from a morning low below 0.7700 to currently trade around 0.7750, its highest level since last week. $AUD $USD
  • Italian PM Conte has informed his cabinet that he will resign, which has come ahead of the Senate vote on the justice minister’s annual report, where there had been a risk of a government defeat. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Counter Trend Pattern Favors Pending Upside

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Counter Trend Pattern Favors Pending Upside

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist


  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Crude Oil downside expected to be limitedon price pattern
  • US Stockpiles continue trend of declining despite build in gasoline and Cushing stockpiles
  • Next technical Bullish trigger set at lower high from May at $50.00, support near $47.75
  • IGCS Sentiment highlight: Sharp rise in short positions provides contrarian signal to look for upside

The streak of back-to-back US crude oil inventory declines since May continued on Wednesday per the Energy Information Administration. For the sixth consecutive week, Crude Oil traders were treated to the favorable news on an announcement of a 6.45m barrel draw for the week ended August 4. However, there was some unwelcome news as stocks at Cushing, OK, a US key delivery hub saw the first inventory build in 12 weeks despite the nationwide decline and gasoline imports came in at a six-year high to lift inventories by 3.42m barrels versus an expected decline of 1.56m barrels. Gasoline is derived from crude oil as it is a major product created from crude refinement.

Bullish crude traders may be disappointed that U.S. and North Korea tensions are not providing a pop for Crude Oil, but the positive effect is seen more clearly in haven assets like the Japanese Yen and Gold, which rose the most in eight weeks. Another development worth watching is the strengthening USD, which has found life in August after an encouraging employment report caused a likely unwinding of the increasingly popular short USD trade. Since Oil is priced in USD, a weaker USD is expected to bring about a higher price of oil, all else being equal.

Last, but not least, the chart pattern may show that Crude bulls should not worry about the lack of upside that we’ve seen in August, which has run counter to the commodity bull market that became the dominant theme in July. The price pattern shows a triangle, which is a pattern favorable for eventual trend continuation, but not the start of an aggressive counter trend move.

The chart below encapsulates the broad price action from 2017. What you can see to the far right of the chart is price breaking above the falling/ bearish price channel. The ceiling of that channel in relation to current price is near $47.75/bbl. If a further price breakdown occurs, I will anticipate the price breakdown halting near this zone before a bounce, and potential uptrend continuation develops. A daily close below $47.75/bbl would encourage a reconsidering the bullish bias.

Given the strong rise in Crude Oil since Q3 began,click here to see the opportunities we’re watching in Oil.

JoinTylerin hisDaily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ETto discuss tradeable market developments.

After an encouraging EIA report, Oil turns focus to trading outside of the bearish channel

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Counter Trend Pattern Favors Pending Upside

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Crude Oil Sentiment: Net-short crude positions provides contrarian signal to look for upside

The sentiment highlight section is designed to help you see how DailyFX utilizes the insights derived from IG Client Sentiment, and how client positioning can lead to trade ideas. If you have any questions on this indicator, you are welcome to reach out to the author of this article with questions at

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Counter Trend Pattern Favors Pending Upside

Oil - US Crude: Retail trader data shows 42.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.38 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Jul 26 when Oil - US Crude traded near 4869.3; theprice has moved 1.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.9% lower than yesterday and 8.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.8% lower than yesterday and unchanged from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bullish contrarian trading bias. (Emphasis mine)


Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.