We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfNXyS https://t.co/OVhyNgLRn5
  • We were almost there, but the $SPX fell short of a >1.0% daily change. That raises the tally to 39 consecutive trading days without a climb or fall of even a moderate measure https://t.co/ibt82dBGmh
  • En español: El oro tropieza y se precipita en caída libre. ¿Qué explica las pérdidas del metal dorado y la alta volatilidad en los mercados financieros? #XAUUSD #trading $gold https://t.co/Hdsd0z1qih https://t.co/WKnGaABVS8
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.17% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.30% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.38% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lrSRyCHLjw
  • Martin Guzman named as Argentina's new Minister of Economy $USDARS
  • YouGov poll finds 52% for Johnson winning debate vs 48% for Corbyn $GBPUSD
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.15% Gold: -1.07% Silver: -2.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MUWxfLEsGn
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Crumbling OPEC Deal Agitates Oil Market

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Crumbling OPEC Deal Agitates Oil Market

2016-11-29 15:56:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE!

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Strong Dollar & Clear Support In Focus To Resume Downtrend
  • OPEC Production Cut Deal Comes Down To the Wire, Crude Down ~3.5% On Session
  • Deal Rejection Could Lead To Long Winter For Oil Market

We’re less than 24-hours to go before the Concluding Press Conference in Vienna where OPEC is said to agree or disagree on a united production cut formally, and it’s not looking good for those hoping for a deal. While some maintain that a cut is the default outcome, the details and follow-through have always been a concern.

On Tuesday morning, we see that multiple sides are playing hardball in that Saudi is willing to walk away if Iraq & Iran is unwilling to join the cut, which looks to be the case heading into the final day of negotiations. Reuters reported an OPEC Source that said Iran had proposed in a letter to OPEC that Saudi cut oil output to 9.5mln bpd, which is nearly three times what Saudi previously mentioned they were willing to cut.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

The added significance of the request is that the entire production cut deal was originally geared at having OPEC agree in unison to cut ~1mln bpd. Now, Saudi is being asked by the same countries that are seen by them as holding up the deal to roughly carry the entire cut. Such a request in the final hours seems to argue that a deal is becoming more and more unlikely by the hour.

D1Crude Oil Price Chart: USOIL Advance Is Rejected At Ichimoku Cloud / Fibonacci Zone Resistance

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Crumbling OPEC Deal Agitates Oil Market

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

The price of Crude Oil (CFD:USOil) or CL1 has been rejected by the topmark of our pre-defined resistance zone at $48.19/bbl. This predefined level marks the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the October-November Range as well as the Ichimoku Cloud.

Per the recent Commitment of Traders data, we saw that long Brent exposure increased by its most in 7-weeks last week by Hedge Funds. You could easily extrapolate this to show much of the recent bounce higher into resistance, which could easily wash out and bring a subsequent break through support if no deal develops and the recent longs jump ship.

With all the volatility, we continue to keep an eye on the Trendline drawn off the first higherlow in early April should a breakdown occur on no-deal. If the bullish environment remains, and the price continues above this trendline, we’ll be on the watch for further upside. Another component that could help the price of Oil stay above the trendline is the pull-back in the Dollar Index that we’ve seen into month-end flows.

Join Tyler Monday’s at 3 pm EST to discuss key global macro trends like Oil (Free Registration)

In addition to the Fibonacci resistance zone that occupies $45.90-$48.19/bbl, we also see the top of the Andrew’s Pitchfork that should still be respected until price definitively uses the top of the channel (declining upper red line) as support for a move higher. The support zone worth watching is $43/42 per barrel. A break below this important zone that houses the post-election low and Trendline could indicate the risk of a double-top is upon us. The absolute double-top target would be near the February low around ~$26bl. However, the initial focus would be on a 61.8% extension below the neckline toward $35bl, which is highlighted on the chart.

Either way, we have the zones to watch regardless of how price breaks.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading as of Tuesday, November 28,2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Crumbling OPEC Deal Agitates Oil Market

T.Y.

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.