We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD breakdown has taken the index into confluence support at the objective yearly open. Get your USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/A16XEv6n4d https://t.co/GzEp3gCAe5
  • US equities continue to run higher with the Nasdaq 100 setting a fresh all-time-high, not even three months after giving back almost a third of its value in about a month. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/e9FvSLqfaA
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Support Holds As Supply Fears Fade

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Support Holds As Supply Fears Fade

2016-05-24 19:50:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

The US Dollar and Crude Oil are both higher on the day along with SPX500. Much of what happened on Tuesday appears to be fueled by a risk-on rally as even the European Stoxx 600 rose by the most in six weeks at 2.2% on ~110% of its average monthly volume.

The risk-on sentiment appears to be bringing to favor the view that the supply imbalance that impaled Bulls in 2015 and the beginning of 2016 is dissipating.

Compete to Win Cash Prizes With Your FXCM Mini Account, Click Here For More Info

On Wednesday, the EIA inventory data and Cushing Stock will be looked to confirm recent sentiment that there are large draws on current supplies that are aligning with disruptions of supply in Nigeria to further support price toward $50/bbl. Tomorrow’s EIA numbers are expected to come in at 2.25m bbl decline in crude stockpiles. Thankfully, the disruptions in Crude from the Canadian Wildfires don’t appear to be long-lasting as Canadian oil-sands facilities that workers evacuated last week due to wildfires are being allowed to prepare for the restart.

Long-Term Oil Trendline (Chart from Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist)

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Support Holds As Supply Fears Fade

To See How FXCM’s Live Clients Are Positioned In FX & Equities Click Here Now.

The larger technical picture aligns nicely with the sentiment of the larger fundamental pressure. In short, there is an overwhelming question about whether the market will instantly become over-supplied as high prices force producers to bring new supply to the market. Similarly, there is a question about the charts, and whether or not price can clear $50/bbl for WTI Crude Oil.

Key Support & Resistance Levels from Here (Visual Map Below)

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Support Holds As Supply Fears Fade

Looking at the chart, since bouncing off the $43 level to almost piercing $50/bbl, the market appears determined to buy dips toward multi-day lows. The recent low worth focusing on appears to be the May 19 low of $47.26 followed by the May 12 low of $46.34 per barrel. The weekly pivot is close to $48 and appears to be a good support to favor staying long above or to not pay attention to getting short until it breaks.

Current Resistance is the 2016 high of $49.26 followed by the Weekly R1 Pivot resistance at $49.77. While $50/bbl is a good psychological level, there is a potential that with the risk-on rally in 2016 benefiting commodities the most that Oil could easily get bid-up through $50 on money moving from not only risk-off assets to Oil but also from lower performing risk-on assets like stocks. Either way, the layers of support should be watching to hold Oil up on its way to and possibly through $50/bbl.

Contrarian System Warns of Further Upside As of 5/24/16

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Support Holds As Supply Fears Fade

In addition to the technical focus around multiple support-zones, we should keep an eye on retail sentiment, which favors more upside price action. Further upside is currently aligned with our Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI for now.

According to client positions at FXCM, the ratio of long to short positions in the US Oil stands at -1.83 as 35% of traders are long. Short positions are 23.1% higher than levels seen last week. Open interest is 36.2% higher than yesterday and 3.0% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives a signal that the US Oil may continue higher.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs As of Monday, May 24, 2016

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Support Holds As Supply Fears Fade


Think Oil has more room to run? Trade Oil With Low Margin Requirements (non-US Residents only)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.