News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (NOV) Actual: -3.9% Expected: -4.5% Previous: -5.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-25
  • US Corporate Earnings (Jan 25-29) Ticker (Earnings Implied move) Jan 26th - $JNJ (2.4%) - $AXP (4.3%) - $VZ (2.1%) - $MSFT (3.5%) Jan 27th - $T (3.6%) - $BA (2.9%) - $FB (6.1%) - $TSLA (6%) - AAPL (4.7%) Jan 28th - $MCD (3%) - $MA (3.6%) - $V (2.8%) Jan 29th - $CAT (4%) https://t.co/4Hir4UHXdY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.50%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KuDL7vTltw
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (NOV) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -4.5% Previous: -5.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-25
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.80% Oil - US Crude: 0.74% Gold: 0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/J1sPu7UBEC
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/CzqDUXRj6r
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.42% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.29% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0zNKmfjVB1
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-25
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.38% Wall Street: 0.10% Germany 30: -0.05% FTSE 100: -0.20% France 40: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/B1qWJzbETV
  • $GBPUSD picking up slightly, while $EURGBP slides to intra-day lows https://t.co/fFLq52gV8E
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Payrolls Push Oil & Risk Higher

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Payrolls Push Oil & Risk Higher

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

The price of Crude Oil has moved to its best levels since January on its strongest weekly gain since May. Other commodities like Gold are joining therace, which entered into a bull-market with today’s push higher. The turn-around in data points in the United States it naturally turning attention toward the idea that demand may soon start to eat away at the oversupply in the Oil market that could help balance the pressures of oversupply.

The Dollar Story & Its Effect in Oil

Traders wondering if Oil prices have bottomed or not will have to wait and see for confirmation, but two things that should not be underestimated is the effect of the US Dollar on Oil prices and the power of short-sellers exiting their trade in unison to push up a market. Case in point, Chesapeake Energy, one of the most concentrated shortpositions in the market is up 85% this week as short-sellers are seeing limited upside (which means downside for shorts) for now.

Additionally, there is an inverse relationship between the price of the US Dollar and commodities. Right now, the US Dollar may be changing its tune as it approaches the all-important 200-dma. Therefore, if the price of US Dollar continues to fall, and it could if it breaks below the 200-dma, we could likely see a weak USD contributing to support further WTI Crude Oil gains.

WTI Crude Oil Begins To Look Mighty Comfortable Above Former $34.79/bbl Resistance

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Payrolls Push Oil & Risk Higher

Key Oil Price Levels from Here

We are getting awfully close to the 2016 opening price high of WTI Crude Oil at $38.36. A break above there could turn to a similar slingshot move like we saw in the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar. For now, the most important price support appears to be the $30.00/50 zone that provided the late February low. A hold above there will keep attention on the Opening Range high of $38.36. However, this will likely only be possible on further risk appetite that would be seen in higher stocks, and a weaker US Dollar. Above the opening range high of 2016, traders will next look to the psychologically important $40, which would be a 50%+ move off the current low of $26.03.

Contrarian System Warns of Further Price Support

In addition to the technical focus around the 34% rally resistance, we should keep an eye on Bears unsuccessfully trying to push down the price of Oil. A move into resistance, and possibly beyond aligns with our Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI. Our internal readings of Oil are showing an SSI reading of -1.6628. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders have moved from net long to now net short provides a contrarian signal that US Oil may continue eventually higher through resistance. If the reading were to turn positive yet again, and the price broke back below $32/30, we could begin looking for a retest of the YTD low of $26.03. Until then, higher looks to be the path of least resistance.

T.Y.

Think Oil Has Bottomed? Trade Oil With Low Margin Requirements (non-US Residents only)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES