News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN +0.29% #BITCOINCASH +0.02% #ETHEREUM +0.51% #RIPPLE +3.72% #LITECOIN +2.19%
  • It took some time for USD/MXN to respond to weakness in equity markets, but this week it came to life as U.S. weakness spread across global markets. Get your $USDMXN technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/G8b6w1wCzH https://t.co/zEtpARMkMg
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.38%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 65.20%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WGk95Bnjx5
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.45% Oil - US Crude: -0.63% Silver: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/RvLy6xA9Is
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.32% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.38% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/MZIiNOFxXu
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/DHufbBKbDu
  • Canadian PM Trudeau says Canada purchasing 20 million vaccine doses from Astrazeneca -BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.26% France 40: 0.03% Wall Street: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.06% Germany 30: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/jByk8LUAt6
  • UK Government Official says either outcome is possible on Brexit
  • UK Government Official says if gaps in fisheries and level playing field are bridged, the EU's more constructive attitude will need to be translated into more realistic positions in the days to come
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Coils– Loonie Breakout Imminent

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Coils– Loonie Breakout Imminent

2020-08-25 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD sell-off stalls at Fibonacci support- weekly opening-range in focus
  • Bears vulnerable while above 1.3151 – key resistance 1.34

The Canadian Dollar has been rangebound against the US Dollar for weeks with USD/CAD holding just above long-term Fibonacci support. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the immediate decline remains vulnerable while above this threshold and we’re looking for a breakout in the days ahead for further guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts heading into the close of the month. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 28
( 12:09 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the USD/CAD sell-off was approaching key support, “with a break below 1.3152 needed to mark resumption of the broader March downtrend.” Loonie has continued to respect Fibonacci support here for the past five-days with price marking an outside-day reversal off the lows into the start of the week.

The immediate focus is on a breakout of this near-term range just above the 88.6% retracement with channel resistance now converging on the lower parallel of a longer-term ascending pitchfork we’ve been tracking off the 2016 / 2017 lows (~1.3240s).

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork formation extending off July highs with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below the upper parallel. A topside breach exposes resistance objectives at 1.3270 and the June low / 78.3% retracement at 1.3315/22. Ultimately a break / close above monthly-open resistance at the 1.34-handle is needed to suggest a larger price reversal is underway. Weekly-open support at 1.3170 with a close below 1.3151 marking resumption towards 1.3102 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 rally at 1.3057.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The USD/CAD has set a well-defined range just above support – look to the breakout for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – be on guard for downside exhaustion while above 1.3151 with a breakout of this multi-week formation needed to fuel a larger correction. Ultimately a recovery here may offer more favorable opportunities closer to downtrend resistance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.93 (65.83% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are1.63% lower than yesterday and 18.35% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 6.55% lower than yesterday and 5.72% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Yet, traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 2% 0%
Weekly -16% 32% -3%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Key US / Canada Data Releases

US / Canada Key Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES