0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Multiple time frame analysis follows a top down approach when trading and allows traders to gauge the longer-term trend while spotting ideal entries on a smaller time frame chart. Learn how to incorporate multiple time frame analysis here: https://t.co/HnzQcAXWLU https://t.co/A517hC0JAG
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/1G7CRsegRX https://t.co/jBFhVRWLyy
  • Copper prices seem to have stalled just shy of key chart resistance as geopolitical tensions weigh on the global-growth proxy. Get your copper market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/qseySE5dWP https://t.co/u0HoA9tVvz
  • The #Euro may pay the price for the EU’s stance on its digital sovereignty while the US Dollar eyes closely-scrutinized US fiscal stimulus talks. Get your $EURUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/Ga3DdHod7j https://t.co/Mfhb5iqLF6
  • The Indian Rupee struggled to benefit from an unexpected RBI rate hold as the Nifty 50 inched closer to invalidating a bearish reversal signal. What is the road ahead for USD/INR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Zjiay6hQWT https://t.co/TvedUlvwxd
  • While the balance sheet did not set higher highs US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest since the middle of March If you invert jobless claims, it set a higher high alongside #SP500 #FoodForThought ahead of the weekend, and have a good one! https://t.co/n6SaEdnpMi https://t.co/AKNYNlUa4l
  • Copper prices seem to have stalled just shy of key chart resistance as geopolitical tensions weigh on the global-growth proxy. Get your copper market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/qseySE5dWP https://t.co/zuQMaDqScY
  • When is a 1.76 million jobs added to the US economy underwhelming? When it is still 12.88 million jobs from the pre-pandemic level and economists warn the subsequent gains are going to slow sharply... https://t.co/IUMBsiGYYC
  • The New Zealand Dollar may extend its surge from yearly lows as it tentatively signals a cyclical upturn. NZD/USD, NZD/JPY rates poised for further gains. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/vrOuFkvWpX https://t.co/wKbQNFAZbn
  • The US Dollar is testing key support levels against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah following persistent losses. Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/qqYDELqydd https://t.co/nh7SspnIzF
US Dollar Technical Analysis: Next Pullback Will Tell Traders Much

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Next Pullback Will Tell Traders Much

2018-08-27 18:30:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

US Dollar Index (DXY) Key Points:

  • The ONE Thing: Despite a supportive message at Jackson Hole, the US Dollar sold off. There are a few things that one could point to (I for one, choose China,) but regardless, the hot-handed US Economy may have outrun the pack with little gas left in the tank as speculators are holding their longest positions in a year and recent performance over the last few months has been waning. If the US Economy can not continue to outperform at this out-of-character pace, we could see a softer US Dollar ahead.
  • The risk for a December hike being downgraded to a hold continues to be on the table as chairman Powell voiced doubts on the reliability of neutral or * rages like that of unemployment and the reference cash rate. The next two months will likely be critical in how the Fed sees the domestic and international effects of the tightening cycle hitting full stride.
  • Technical Outlook on the US Dollar: The US Dollar is seeing its sharpest pullback after touching technical resistance mid-month at 97. The Dollar Index has pulled back by 2.4% despite hawkish talk from Fed members. The key question on the charts will be as to whether the next move higher in US Dollar will result in a lower-high that is followed by the next big breakdown.

Can the rest of the world continue to disappoint enough to support the US Dollar? That’s the question US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls likely need to be questioning themselves. Recently, I argued that traders should be aware of the steps that China has taken to support the Renminbi and can see more information on this analyst pick, Despite the Ongoing Global Trade War, USD/CNH May Have Topped.

As China has strengthened the Renminbi, the EUR is also staging a comeback of sorts after a modest move above the 55-DMA could trigger a move to the head-and-shoulder neckline of 1.1785 with building bullish momentum.

Monday’s drop in the US Dollar showed that even constructive rhetoric from Fed governors was/ has not been enough to lift the greenback that has struggled since Trump complained about Powell not being an ‘easy money’ Fed Chairman.

Extreme speculative positioning continues in DXY per Paul Robinson’s weekly report. Positive developments elsewhere could lead to a material pullback in DXY longs that could lead to a price pullback toward key support that is seen best on the US Dollar price chart.

Will Leveraged Funds Continue To Chase A Weakening USD?

Please add a description for the image.

Data source: CoT: Bullish USD Bets Continue to Grow as Trend Comes into Question

Unlock our Q3 forecast to learn what will drive trends for the US Dollar through the rest of2018!

Technically Speaking – US Dollar Breakdown Is Gaining Steam

Please add a description for the image.

Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

After appearing to be made of Kevlar (or your favorite indestructible service,) the potential for the US Economy and the US Dollar to outperform expectations seem to be declining. The main takeaway from Jackson Hole for traders was that hikes by the Fed are fully priced in as further confidence seemed only to lead to more USD selling.

On the chart above, you can see the US Dollar is working on its sharpest drop since February when it was on its way to trading sub-88. Now, traders should be concerned that a broader drop is in the works as speculators were recently noted as being as long US Dollar’s as they have in a year.

As a technically-driven FX trader, the most important development for me to watch is what happens on the immediate pull-back. If we see a weak, three-waved pull-back higher that is limited to 95.30 before resuming lower, then we could see multiple weeks or more of US Dollar weakness that could lead to opportunities in beat-up currencies like the Australian Dollar despite improving fundamentals.

We’ll see.

New to FX trading? No worries, we created this guide just for you.

Resources to Support Your FX Trading:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q3 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer an excess of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our popular and free IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.