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Talking Points:
- US Dollar Technical Strategy: Now Looking to Sell Strength
- March 13th, 2015 Daily Range Resistance of 12,064- 12,149 Is Trend Defining
- Support Zone: Trendline Drawn Off Daily Price Closes From Mid-May / 200-DMA
The October seasonal studies painted a very clear picture for the US dollar. The picture was not favorable, and now, the support that has held up the sanguine currency is at risk of failing. A break of this support could bring pronounced downside. We recently stated that a clear change of fortunes could be in the process. A break and hold below trendline support would be the next confirmation, second to the multiple failures at the March 13th, 2015 Daily Range Resistance.
September 18th support at 11,865 is now in focus. A break below would prompt attention towards a more significant reversal as outlined by the red downward channel. Taking into account the move higher from October 15, 2014, to March 13th, 2015, the Fibonacci retracement tool may be of assistance to us. Current price support sits at 23.6% of that range, which is a minor support, and a break below opens the 38.2% level as a target. The 38.2% retracement of the range is very close to the May low of 11,634. From a trader’s perspective, the September 18th low and Fibonacci support levels are the key levels were focusing on now. A break of those levels takes us toward the 2015 open (11,550) and the 50% retracement (11,535) of the range above. Additionally, the 200-day moving average aligns with the trendline in focus.
Q4 Opening Range Resistance currently sits at 12,085 and remains the focal point on the chart that would need to break before we give preference to the bullish view. Looking to the currencies that have strengthened over the last ten days, (EUR, commodity currencies, and emerging market currencies) a lot of lost ground could be reclaimed. Especially if they intend to reverse or retrace a portion of the trend that began the summer of 2014. Either way, the trendline support will be a good place to keep your focus on the chart should a stronger retracement be at hand.
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