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FTSE 100: Traders Tread Carefully Ahead of Today’s NFP Report

FTSE 100: Traders Tread Carefully Ahead of Today’s NFP Report

2016-03-04 08:16:00
Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst
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Talking Points

  • The FTSE 100’s bullish momentum is decelerating, but the trend remains short-term bullish.
  • The U.S. labor market is expected to add 195k new jobs according to 92 economists in a Bloomberg news survey. A better than expected NFP outcome may boost the FTSE 100 and vice versa.

Stay informed - download the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold

The FTSE 100’s bullish momentum is decelerating, but the trend remains short-term bullish and price may reach the January 29 high of 6322, as long as last Friday’s low of 6034 is respected. On a break to last Friday’s low, the FTSE 100 may reach the February 24 low of 5845 followed by the January 20 low of 5598.

The reason for the slowdown in the bullish momentum is partially due to today’s U.S. NFP report, cautioning traders to enter with fresh positions, as the NFP carries enough weight to set the tone for the FTSE 100 over the next few weeks.

The momentum is also slowing as the FTSE gained a tad too much in relation to the gains in the DAX 30 and commodity markets. Over the last six months the FTSE has exhibited a daily correlation of +0.78 and +0.65 in relation to the DAX and Bloomberg Commodity indexes respectively.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

The U.S. labor market is expected to add 195k new jobs according to 92 economists in a Bloomberg news survey. However, the spread around the median estimate is wide with a standard deviation of 23.84k.

My basic assumption is for the FTSE 100 to gain on a better than expected NFP outcome and for it to trade lower on a softer than expected one. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%.

FTSE 100 | FXCM: UK100

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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