S&P 500 Technical Outlook – Price Action Keeps Market in Limbo
S&P 500 Highlights:
- S&P 500 trying to carve out higher high, higher low sequence
- Climb through 2742 will have 2800+ in focus
- Weekly low likely needs to hold to keep tone positive
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Since bottoming at the beginning of April the S&P 500 has been in the process of slowly (and sloppily) putting together a string of higher-highs and higher-lows, with the second higher-low coming at the all-important confluence between the 200-day and Feb 2016 trend-line.
Overall, the market has a semi-positive feel to it at the moment with a couple of recent gap-downs not leading to follow-through selling, as buyers are showing a willingness to step in on weakness. The drop on Tuesday saw a successful retest of the trend-line running off the record high before Wednesday's surge.
A breakout above 2742 will clear way for a potential move to the March high just over 2800, and yet another higher-high since early April. On the flip-side, to keep the tone positive, the weekly low at 2676 and trend-line off the highs need to hold.
If the lower levels don’t hold, then yet another test of the bull-market line-in-the-sand will be in store – the 200-day/Feb 2016 trend-line combination. A 4th test since February might prove to be a fatal one. While we are carving out a bullish sequence in the shorter-term, since January the recent high could be another lower-high, when pulling back to a more intermediate-term view.
A decline below the aforementioned line-in-the-sand would imply a significant topping sequence has been cemented. Right now, it’s a battle between a semi-positive structure since April and a possibly much more bearish one since January. Indeed, the market at this juncture is in limbo.
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S&P 500 Daily Chart
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.