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S&P 500 Highlights:

  • S&P 500 testing top-side trend-line of wedge
  • Top and drop, or consolidation pattern?

See what factors are driving the S&P 500 this quarter and find out how our Top Trading Opportunities for 2018 are doing on the Trading Guides page.

The debate continues – is the market topping or consolidating? It could be either, but the broad wedge formation under development could soon give us a definitive answer. The most recent drive off the February 2016 trend-line and 200-day MA has the top-side trend-line of the triangle in play.

We’re at a fairly important juncture here in the short-term and possibly big-picture, too. In the short-run, the market runs the risk of another turn lower, but a downturn might not last long as the 2016 trend-line/200-day MA (in confluence) are rising levels of support. The bottom of the triangle lies just below this confluence of support, so even on a slight breakdown there is another line which could keep the market held up.

In either event – whether we see a breakdown confirming a top, or a consolidation pattern leading to higher prices – a little more time for the pattern to tighten up the pattern is ideal. The size of the pattern points to a sizable move of over 300 points from the point of a breakout. A downside break will hold the most violent move.

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S&P 500 Daily Chart (Triangle forming)

S&P 500 daily chart, triangle forming

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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