What’s inside:
- S&P 500 holding above eyed support levels
- Light holiday trading environment here until the calendar flips (barring a major news event)
- Still some time left to notch out a new record high
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On Thursday, the S&P 500 moved below the November trend-line we were watching as possible support during the recent period of consolidation. While the market didn’t hold the line, there wasn’t any aggressive selling experienced as a result of its break. Another angle of support is quickly approaching, with the Feb 11 trend-line coming up just beneath current levels at around 2255. Not far below there lies the consolidation period lows at 2248. Without a catalyst, it looks unlikely the market will fall too far too fast. We look for either the trend-line or those lows to hold.
While the downside looks muted in the absence of a catalyst, a break above the recent record high at 2277.5 looks very much alive before 2016 concludes. Risk sentiment supports this notion. A steady hold at current levels is beginning to look like the ‘bearish’ scenario.
S&P 500: Daily
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Only a few days left until we move into the new year, when market participation will grow back to normal size and market volatility will rise. Until then, expect liquidity to remain thin and volatility subdued. If one has risk on, though, it doesn’t mean you can be complacent – be prepared for the unexpected.
The economic calendar is light this week, with only a couple of ‘high’ impact data events highlighting the schedule; Consumer Confidence at 15:00 GMT today, Advance Goods Trade Balance on Thursday at 13:30.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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