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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZ Dollar Sellers Challenge Uptrend

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZ Dollar Sellers Challenge Uptrend

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  • New Zealand Dollar pressuring four-month rising trend support
  • Break lower might see long-term structural decline re-engaged
  • Neutralizing selling pressure probably needs close above 0.67

The New Zealand Dollar edged down to test support guiding a three-month recovery against its US counterpart after a telltale Shooting Star candlestick appeared on a test of trend resistance from July 2017 (as expected). The selloff paused here thanks to fillip from better-than-expected CPI data, but the pair tellingly held below immediate resistance at the 0.6636 and kept the near-term series of lower highs intact.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

If this proves telling of sellers’ conviction, a break through the upward-sloping floor establishing the rise from October’s swing bottom might be on the horizon. Such a move would paint recent gains as corrective and set the stage for resumption of the longer-term decline. A dense layer of back-to-back support sits in the 0.6425-96 area. Below that is the 0.6322-34 zone, followed by a five-year bottom near 0.62.

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Neutralizing near-term selling pressure might begin with a daily close back above 0.6636. Making the case for upward follow-through probably requires a daily close above 2.5-year trend resistance however, which now sits just a hair above the 0.67 figure. Establishing a foothold above that might pave the way to revisit the December 31 high at 0.6756, followed shortly thereafter by the July 19 top at 0.6791.


Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% -7% -7%
Weekly -16% 30% 4%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.