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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Move to Retake Control

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Move to Retake Control

What's on this page


  • New Zealand Dollar rally rejected at long-term resistance
  • Sellers on the verge of 1-month NZD/USD uptrend break
  • Back-to-back support levels lining up to slow the decline
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The New Zealand Dollar may be on the verge of resuming the dominant downtrend against its US counterpart. Prices tumbled after putting in a telltale Shooting Star candlestick squarely at the outer layer of resistance guiding them downward since July 2017. They are now on course to break the bounds of the rise from late November, setting the stage for deeper losses ahead.

Confirmation of a bearish breach secured on a daily closing basis broadly shifts the spotlight to a cluster of overlapping support levels in the 0.6425-96 area. Pushing back below that would neutralize the upward trajectory established from the October 1 swing low, convincingly painting gains in the fourth quarter of 2019 as corrective within a structural decline telegraphed in longer-term positioning.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

NZD/USD daily chart created using TradingView

The way lower toward this critical threshold looks far from simple however. Zooming in to the four-hour chart shows the one-month uptrend appears broken but back-to-back support levels now line up as roadblocks to downward progress. Former resistance in the 0.6636-48 zone is followed by a rising trend line at 0.6610, then a chart inflection point at 0.6576. These might make finding an attractive near-term short entry setup challenging on risk/reward grounds.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

NZD/USD 4-hour chart created using TradingView

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% 0% 5%
Weekly -18% 3% -8%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.