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DAX 30 Maintains a Bullish Drift Ahead of Today’s Fed Meeting

DAX 30 Maintains a Bullish Drift Ahead of Today’s Fed Meeting

2016-03-16 08:27:00
Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

Talking Points

  • The overall trend remains bullish above the ECB rate meeting low of 9397.
  • Data which may influence the DAX 30, are both today’s U.S. inflation report and the U.S. Industrial production figures.
  • However, today’s most important event will probably be the Fed rate meeting.

The overall trend remains bullish above the ECB rate meeting low of 9397 from Thursday last week.

Trend following traders might therefore keep on buying the DAX 30 (FXCM: GER30) and lift it higher. This view is also supported by the FXCM SSI, which shows that 51% of retail traders are short the GER30. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and hints that we may see a higher GER30 over the coming days ahead.

Traders who are not already long the DAX will probably require an entry with a good risk/reward ratio. If these traders are expecting the DAX to reach the next resistance level of 10,164 and for the DAX to respect the ECB rate meeting low of 9397, a decline to 9654 may be needed in order to obtain a potential gain, which is two times the potential loss. Please see the chart below.

Bearish trades will probably remain side-lined until the short-term uptrend in place since mid-February ends. This may happen on a break to last Thursday’s low of 9397 and in this scenario, the price may reach the February 24 low of 9122, followed by the February 11 low of 8705.

Today’s most important event will probably be the Fed rate meeting. The Fed will update market participates on its view of the economy and about potential changes to monetary policy. Most participants expect no change to the Fed key rate today and would likely rather want to know if the Fed will raise rates in June.

Download the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold

DAX 30 | FXCM: GER30

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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