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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Flirting with Support Break

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Flirting with Support Break

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Euro rejected on a test of two-month range resistance vs US Dollar
  • Shooting Star candlestick hints at topping as bullish conviction ebbs
  • Confirmation of reversal needed to make bearish setup actionable
EUR/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -10% -4% -7%
Weekly -2% -6% -4%
What do other traders’ EUR/USD bets say about the price trend?
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The Euro recoiled from resistance at the top of its recent range against the US Dollar, proving prescient the warning offered by negative RSI divergence about durability of a surge to four-month highs last week. The appearance of a dramatic-looking Shooting Star candlestick at resistance now bolsters the case for draining bullish conviction. That may precede a downturn.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

Zooming into the four-hour chart for a sense of near-term positioning, EUR/USD seems to be sitting squarely at support in the 1.1110-16 area, marked by a former resistance barrier as well as the trend line guiding prices’ latest upswing. Breaking below that looks to expose the 1.1051-65 congestion region, followed by the range bottom in the 1.0968-90 zone.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

4-hour EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

On balance, this means that – capitulation at the range top notwithstanding – the bounds of the upswing from late-November lows remain intact for now. Furthermore, proximity to immediate support seems to make initiating short exposure unattractive form a risk/reward perspective. Would-be sellers may opt to wait for a confirmed break of upward-sloping support before considering the setup actionable.

EUR/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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