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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Pop Failing at Range Top?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Pop Failing at Range Top?

Ilya Spivak,
What's on this page


  • Euro surges to 4-month high but struggles to break range top
  • Negative RSI divergence hints rally may reverse course soon
  • Reversal confirmation needs break of 2-week trend support

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The Euro is testing the top of the range confining price action since mid-October in the 1.1176-83 area. A break higher confirmed on a daily closing basis may set the stage for a push beyond the 1.13 figure, with a minor barrier at 1.1348 lining up thereafter on route to the late June high of 1.1412.

Immediate support is marked by a rising trend line connecting swing lows defining the upswing from the October 29 low, now at 1.1094. A reversal back below that opens the door for another challenge of support in the 1.0968-90 congestion area.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

Near-term positioning suggests the upside foray may be repelled. The four-hour chart shows EUR/USD stalling at double top resistance as negative RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum. That might be laying the groundwork for a reversal downward.

Any weakness that follows from here will need to conclusively clear two-week uptrend support to make a convincing case for bearish follow-through, even in the near term. The long side seems no more attractive however – at least for now – as prices’ proximity to resistance speaks to adverse risk/reward parameters.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

4-hour EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 5% -1%
Weekly 7% -1% 4%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.