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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Pop Failing at Range Top?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Pop Failing at Range Top?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Euro surges to 4-month high but struggles to break range top
  • Negative RSI divergence hints rally may reverse course soon
  • Reversal confirmation needs break of 2-week trend support

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The Euro is testing the top of the range confining price action since mid-October in the 1.1176-83 area. A break higher confirmed on a daily closing basis may set the stage for a push beyond the 1.13 figure, with a minor barrier at 1.1348 lining up thereafter on route to the late June high of 1.1412.

Immediate support is marked by a rising trend line connecting swing lows defining the upswing from the October 29 low, now at 1.1094. A reversal back below that opens the door for another challenge of support in the 1.0968-90 congestion area.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

Near-term positioning suggests the upside foray may be repelled. The four-hour chart shows EUR/USD stalling at double top resistance as negative RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum. That might be laying the groundwork for a reversal downward.

Any weakness that follows from here will need to conclusively clear two-week uptrend support to make a convincing case for bearish follow-through, even in the near term. The long side seems no more attractive however – at least for now – as prices’ proximity to resistance speaks to adverse risk/reward parameters.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Pop Failing at Range Top?

4-hour EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

EUR/USD Mixed
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 13% 3% 7%
Weekly -9% 4% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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