Talking Points:
- Index finds support at the 5,500 area, resistance at 5,600
- Daily close and a hold above 5,600 could imply that bulls are firmly in control
- 20-day ATR reading at its lowest level since September 2014
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The ASX 200 is trading sideways, between well-defined technical levels at the 5,500 support and a narrow resistance zone between 5,570 and 5,600.
Volatility has seen a decline to its lowest levels since September 2014 (based on a 20-day ATR study), perhaps on the backdrop of the “summer lull”.
The index was trading for the past months in a well-defined range between the 5,380 resistance and the 4,750 support, which coincided with the 0.618 Fib level of the long term up trend leg from 2012.
After the index surged higher above the 5,380-5,400 resistance, the move stalled at the resistance area we highlighted in the last reports below 5,600.
At this stage, the move to the downside might still be corrective in the context of the last leg higher as price currently sits above support at the 5,500 level.
A “higher low” may complete the technical bullish picture and indicate the long term uptrend may have resumed, so a break and a hold above 5,600 might signal further bullish intentions.
Short term resistance could potentially be found at 5,700 following a break.
If the index fails to hold above the 5,500 level, support might be found at the aforementioned range highs at 5,380-5,400.
ASX 200 Daily Chart: August 11 2016
--- Written by Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Oded Shimoni, e-mail oshimoni@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @OdedShimoni
