Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
- AUD/USD plunges to fresh eleven-year lows / multi-year downtrend support
- Aussie broader risk remains lower sub-6500
The Australian Dollar plummeted more than 5.4% against the US Dollar this week with a massive reversal candle taking Aussie to fresh eleven-year lows. Price has responded to downtrend support and the focus is on a reaction here at the lower bounds of a multi-year formation we’ve been tracking. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly
![Please add a description for the image.](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3nydp1/Australian-Dollar-Price-Outlook-Aussie-Plummets-to-Downtrend-Support-AUDUSD-Technical-Forecast-MBTS3_body_AustralianDollarPriceChart-AUDUSDWeekly-AussieTradeOutlook-TechnicalForecast0.jpg)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview
Notes: In last month’s Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was, “testing support at multi-year lows and leave the immediate short-bias at risk while above 6660.” Aussie rebounded to a high of 6750 before breaking lower into the close of February with price plummeting more than 11% off the yearly open / highs.
The Australian Dollar has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork formation dating back to the 2018 highs. The Aussie sell-off rebounded just ahead of confluence support near the lower parallel / 2008 low close at 6196 (low registered at 6211). This week’s candle marks the largest weekly range since June 2013 and the largest single-week decline since September 2011. In both instances, price continued lower in the following weeks before mounting a more significant recovery.
That said, price is now testing downtrend support and leaves the immediate short-bias at risk while above pitchfork support. Initial resistance eyed at 6341 with medium-term bearish invalidation at the median-line / 6507. A break lower from here would likely fuel accelerated losses for Aussie with such a scenario exposing initial support objectives at the 2008 swing low / 6006- look for a more significant reaction there IF reached.
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![USD Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/2o6KQV/500x707Forecast-USD.png)
![USD Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/2o6KQV/500x707Forecast-USD.png)
Bottom line: The Australian Dollar breakdown is testing downtrend support and the immediate focus is on a reaction off this slope. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- look for topside exhaustion ahead of 6507 IF price is heading lower with a breach / close above needed to shift the focus higher. I’ll publish and updated Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart
![Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/2YcDY9/Australian-Dollar-Price-Outlook-Aussie-Plummets-to-Downtrend-Support-AUDUSD-Technical-Forecast-MBTS3_body_AustralianDollarTraderSentiment-AUDUSDPriceChart-AussieTradeOutlook-TechnicalFor.jpg)
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +2.39 (70.50% of traders are long) – bearish reading
- Long positions are 5.06% lower than yesterday and 34.38% lower from last week
- Short positions are22.94% lower than yesterday and 34.17% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
Daily | 2% | 3% | 2% |
Weekly | 29% | -46% | 0% |
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Key Australia / US Data Releases
![Key Australia / US Data Releases - Aussie Event Risk - AUD/USD Economic Calendar](https://a.c-dn.net/b/1pajue/Australian-Dollar-Price-Outlook-Aussie-Plummets-to-Downtrend-Support-AUDUSD-Technical-Forecast-MBTS3_body_KeyAustralia-USDataReleases-AUDUSDEconomicCalendar-EventRisk-FOMC-FED.jpg)
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Previous Weekly Technical Charts
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- Gold (XAU/USD)
- Mexican Peso (USD/MXN)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- US Dollar (DXY)
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex