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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Resistance Near 0.81 Figure May Hold

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Resistance Near 0.81 Figure May Hold

2018-01-25 10:01:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar challenging 2017 highs but RSI divergence warns resistance may hold
  • Confirmation of bearish reversal needed before an actionable short position emerges

The Australian Dollar has moved to test the highs set in 2017 as expected but technical positioning has started to warn of a possible reversal in the works. Negative RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum, hinting that buyers may be rejected near the 0.81 figure once again.

Near-term support is at 0.7978, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A turn below this barrier would mark a break of the uptrend from mid-December lows and expose the 61.8% level at 0.7887. Alternatively, a daily close above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 0.8081 targets the 38.2% threshold at 0.8159.

RSI divergence need not necessarily precede trend reversal, so further confirmation is needed before an actionable short trade setup can be identified. In the meantime, waiting on the sidelines seems most prudent until prices resolve direction at this pivotal juncture.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Resistance Near 0.81 Figure May Hold

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