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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Dollar Menacing 2017 Peaks

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Dollar Menacing 2017 Peaks

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar menacing 2017 peaks after hitting 4-month high vs US counterpart
  • Actionable trade signal and improved risk/reward parameters needed to enter trade

The Australian Dollar has advanced to the highest level in four months against its US counterpart, with buyers seemingly poised to force a test of last year’s peak. The advance paused below the 0.79 figure – inspiring the unwinding of a long position from 0.7666 – but upside momentum proved quick to resume.

Confirmation of a break above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7978 on a daily closing basis opens the door for a challenge of the July 27 high at 0.8066. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 61.8% level at 0.7887 – now recast as support – paves the way for a retest of the 50% Fib at 0.7813.

An upside break of near-term resistance is yet to be confirmed. Without that, prices are too close to the barrier to justify re-entering long from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a clear-cut bearish reversal signal argues against taking up the short side. Standing aside seems most prudent for now.

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