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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Reversal Confirmation Sought

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Reversal Confirmation Sought

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar may be forming a triple top below 0.78 vs. US counterpart
  • Confirmation of reversal sought on daily close through trend line support

The Australian Dollar turned downward against its US counterpart as expected, with a potential triple top taking shape below the 0.78 figure. Confirmation of a substantive bearish reversal is needed on invalidation of the series of higher highs and lows beginning from December 2016.

A daily close below 0.7610 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, trend line) opens the door for a test of the 0.7498-0.7524 area (resistance-turned support, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a push above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 0.7669 sees the next upside barrier at 0.7722, the 23.6% threshold.

Waiting for a clear-cut break through near-term rising trend support before entering short seems most prudent, particularly as potentially potent event risk looms ahead on the USD side of the currency pair. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines is probably most attractive for now.

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