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Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Aussie hits 8-month high but RSI divergence warns of downturn ahead
- Waiting for technical confirmation, passage of event risk to enter short
The Australian Dollar resumed the push upward against its US counterpart after brief one-day respite, rising to the strongest level in eight months. The emergence of negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum however, hinting a turn lower may be brewing ahead.
A reversal below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7438 sees the next layer of meaningful support in the 0.7375-82 area, marked by a recently broken double top and the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a break above the 100% Fib at 0.7540 on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test of the 123.6% expansion at 0.7642.
Our 2016 fundamental outlook calls for AUD/USD weakness and we are keen to enter short. However, concrete confirmation of reversal is absent for the time being. Furthermore, the on-coming ECB rate decision may drive dislocation in market sentiment and alter positioning for the risk-geared Aussie. With that in mind, we will opt to remain on the sidelines for now.
Losing money trading AUD/USD? This might be why.
