News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • $SPX holding support, 40m to go until the statement support, prior res $ES $SPY
  • ...I don't believe the markets will ever be okay with the Fed bowing out of stimulus. As market sentiment normalizes, speculative exposure increases proportionally, meaning there will always be a market premium to contend with. A form of the sociological 'normalization' effect
  • Equities pull back from session highs as traders eye the FOMC meeting at the top of the hour $ES $SPX $SPY
  • ...that is my take on the panic around tapering. I'm not advocating for expediting rate hikes, but to continuously punt easing back on stimulus by even a marginal amount only compounds the market's dependencies - increasing moral hazard.
  • 'The economy and markets are so strong that we can't reduce the $120 billion per month asset purchases. Further, if only we can continue this path for an indefinite future, the market will absorb the external risk on its own.'
  • Also, here is the schedule of FOMC meetings from now through the end of 2022. If the Fed doesn't signal taper today, next scheduled time is Nov 2nd and 'quarterly' event time is Dec 14th. Will taper be easier w/ one or two more high CPI updates?
  • Here is my FOMC scenario table going into the rate decision. While a delay in the taper call seems feasible with the market wobble, there will always be wobbles before and the existential threat of a mkt tantrum. Always a hostage?
  • Gold prices are pushing higher so far this week and the FOMC is waiting in the wings with their September rate decision. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • RT @CEOAdam: SO FASCINATING! Dogecoin Poll was by far my highest ever read tweet. In 24 hours, 4.2 million views, my most ever retweets, mo…
  • Just checked the Fed's website to see if they accidently release the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) early by accident - happened once before. Nope, not live yet; but this will be the link when it is:
ECB Speculation Pushes Fed Out of the Spotlight

ECB Speculation Pushes Fed Out of the Spotlight

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

  • Euro, risk trends hinge on whether ECB satiates markets' thirst for stimulus
  • BOC rate decision likely a non-event as Poloz waits for details of fiscal plan
  • NZ Dollar volatility to follow RBNZ policy meeting on evolving rate cut bets

After weeks of preoccupation about the trajectory of Federal Reserve monetary policy, the markets will shift their gaze to the European Central Bank. President Mario Draghi and company are expected to deliver at least another 10 basis point cut to the deposit rate, pushing it deeper into negative territory.

The supply of global monetary stimulus has been a major driver of market-wide risk appetite trends, with shares tracking a broad-based measure of market liquidity. With that in mind, the ECB's policy stance is likely to have implications beyond the Euro and fuel volatility across the spectrum of benchmark assets.

If the ECB delivers pushes the deposit rate to -40bps as is already reflected in forward pricing, investors are likely to be disappointed. Subsequent price action is likely to mirror what happened in December when a similarly pre-telegraphed move failed to inspire enthusiasm.

A truly big-splash gesture would require not only a deposit rate cut but also an increase in up-front QE, increasing monthly purchases from the current rate of €60 billion/month. If this is delivered alongside the rate reduction, the Euro is likely to decline alongside the likewise anti-risk Yen while high-yielding FX such as the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar risk with share prices.

Policy announcements from the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are likewise on tap. The former may be a non-event: Canadian economic data has continued to improve versus expectations since January's BOC meeting and Governor Steven Poloz seems unlikely to abandon wait-and-see mode until the government's fiscal plans are unveiled later this month.

The latter may stoke volatility however as traders comb through the policy statement for clues about when the RBNZ may resume interest rate cuts. Markets price in at least one 25bps reduction and see an 82 percent probability of a cumulative 50bps in easing over the coming 12 months.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.