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US Dollar Advance Showing Signs of Exhaustion: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/IDR, USD/THB

US Dollar Advance Showing Signs of Exhaustion: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/IDR, USD/THB

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/IDR, USD/THB – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar’s push against most ASEAN currencies continued
  • USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR show signs of slowing
  • USD/THB is flirting with 2016 levels as the 2015 peak nears
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Singapore DollarTechnical Outlook – Neutral

The US Dollar continued its advance against the Singapore Dollar this past week, though it trimmed a lot of its gains towards the end. Negative RSI divergence was showing that upside momentum was deteriorating, hinting at a turn lower. USD/SGD also left behind a Hanging Man candlestick pattern, subsequently finding downside follow-through. This could hint at further losses to come. But, prices were unable to drop below the former 1.3986 – 1.3946 resistance zone. Confirming a breakout under the latter could shift the outlook increasingly bearish. Otherwise, the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 1.4115 would be key resistance above.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/SGD Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook – Slightly Bullish

The US Dollar extended its aggressive advance against the Philippine Peso this past week. In fact, USD/PHP rose 3.85% over the past 3 weeks. That was the best performance over the same timeframe since 2000! However, on the daily chart, USD/PHP left behind a couple of Shooting Star candlestick patterns. These are clear signs of indecision, coupled now with negative RSI divergence. Still, the uptrend remains notably intact. Keep a close eye on the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the event of a turn lower. Breaking under it could shift the outlook increasingly bearish.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/PHP Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook – Slightly Bullish

The US Dollar closed at its highest against the Indonesian Rupiah since May 2020 last week. This left USD/IDR above the key 14915 – 14975 resistance zone, which is made up of September 2020 peaks. Still, the pair did leave behind a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. This is coupled with negative RSI divergence. Combined, these are making early warnings of a top. But, the uptrend notably remains intact. A confirmatory close under the 20-day SMA could shift the outlook increasingly bearish. Otherwise, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension is above at 15145.

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USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/IDR Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Thai Baht Technical Outlook – Bullish

The US Dollar pulled forward against the Thai Baht this past week. USD/THB was unable to hold a push above the December 2016 high at 36.08 however. Still, the uptrend remains intact without signs of fading momentum in RSI. A pushback above the December 2016 peak would subsequently expose the 2015 high at 36.668. Otherwise, keep a close eye on the 20-day SMA. The latter may hold as support, reinstating the dominant upside focus.

USD/THB Daily Chart

USD/THB Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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