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US Dollar Outlook Bearish: Thai Baht Still at Risk as SGD, PHP, IDR Outperform

US Dollar Outlook Bearish: Thai Baht Still at Risk as SGD, PHP, IDR Outperform

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar still continues to struggle against most ASEAN currencies
  • USD/SGD faces next test, is USD/THB readying to face the 2018 high?
  • USD/PHP eyeing a Falling Wedge, USD/IDR to confirm trend break?
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Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook

The Singapore Dollar is facing its next test against the US Dollar after USD/SGD broke under rising support from June. The pair left behind a Hammer candlestick pattern as it retested the former 1.3495 – 1.3530 inflection zone. This is a sign of indecision which can at times precede a turn higher. While the near-term bias still holds slightly bearish, a ‘Golden Cross’ between the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages underpins an upside bias in the medium-term. Keep a close eye on these SMAs which may act as key support.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/SGD Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Thai Baht Technical Outlook

The US Dollar continues to make gains against the Thai Baht, as USD/THB retests highs from 2020. Clearing this range exposes peaks from 2018 which make for a key zone of resistance between 33.518 and 33.320. Negative RSI divergence does show that upside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn lower. In such a case, keep a close eye on the 20-day SMA. Breaking under could open the door to a material turn lower towards the 50-day line.

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USD/THB Daily Chart

USD/THB Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

The Philippine Peso continues to make ground against the US Dollar. USD/PHP seems to be biased lower in the near term after the pair took out the 20-day SMA. That has exposed the 50-day line which may come into play as key support and reinstate an upside bias. Still, the pair is consolidating lower within a bullish Falling Wedge chart pattern. A breakout above it may open the door to resuming the uptrend seen from June until the middle of July.

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USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/PHP Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The US Dollar may be vulnerable against the Indonesian Rupiah after USD/IDR broke under a rising trendline from February. Confirming the breakout with another daily close lower may further increase the risk to the downside. Keep a close eye on the 20- and 50-day SMAs, where a bearish ‘Death Cross’ may emerge in the coming trading sessions. Key support below seems to be the May low at 14195. Turning higher could place the focus back on the June high at 14560.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/IDR Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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