News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/JPY strengthening during trade, adding to an impressive run for the Dollar/Yen pair in 2021 https://t.co/xHRuS8D2i0
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.21% Oil - US Crude: -0.21% Gold: -1.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4hoyPt34ex
  • The latest CFTC positioning data for the week ending March 2nd saw speculators continue to unwind their US Dollar net shorts. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/S3Kx4OBphE https://t.co/fejOV0AXYv
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.43%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/klgOuNPYtk
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.45% US 500: 0.20% France 40: -0.10% Germany 30: -0.25% FTSE 100: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/umSIPmSxrY
  • $EURCAD has continued to head lower today, now trading right around the 1.5000 level. The pair hit a fresh one-year low, currently trading at its lowest level since early March of last year. $EUR $CAD https://t.co/Oj9JYasyTU
  • US Indices are rebounding from last week's sell off today. The Dow is leading the way, rising to a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq remains negative for the day. DOW +2.00% NDX -0.55% SPX +0.91% RUT +1.70% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • Another look at the deviation in 'internal' interest in US equities: the candle is the Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 ratio ($NDX-$SPX) overlaid with the S&P 500 itself in blue https://t.co/m2WK4Q2Bs5
  • A notable deviation in direction from the tech-heavy Nadex composite (candle) overlaid with the S&P 500 in blue. The 5-day correlation is still holding up but will start deviating fast at this pace https://t.co/VYY5imk1yS
  • $USD has been pretty strong over the past couple of weeks and to a lesser degree, so far in 2021 but we've only retraced about 23.6% of that massive sell-off that started last March $DXY https://t.co/t5KRSYu0TP
DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Retail Trader Bets Flashing Some Warnings

DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Retail Trader Bets Flashing Some Warnings

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500, Technical Analysis, Retail Trader Positioning - Talking Points

  • European and US equities are pushing higher, but is a turn lower ahead?
  • Retail trader positioning hinting that DAX 30 and S&P 500 may decline
  • FTSE 100 in a consolidative state as upside exposure seems to be fading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
How is IG Client Sentiment a contrarian indicator?
Get My Guide

This week, I covered the outlook for equities such as the DAX 30, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 using IG Client Sentiment (IGCS). The tool is typically a contrarian indicator. For a more in-depth analysis of where these assets may go, including coverage of fundamentals, check out the recording of the webinar above.

DAX 30 Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 33% of retail traders are net long the DAX 30. Upside exposure has climbed by 0.30% and 8.46% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain netshort.

DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Retail Trader Bets Flashing Some Warnings

Technical Analysis

The DAX 30 may be at risk to a turn lower given the presence of negative RSI divergence, a sign of fading upside momentum. This is as prices struggle to push above the all-time high at 14169. In the event of a turn lower, keep a close eye on near-term rising support from November which may maintain the upside focus.

DAX 30 Daily Chart

DAX 30 Daily Chart

DAX 30 Chart Created in Trading View

FTSE 100 Sentiment Outlook - Mixed

The IGCS gauge implies that about 64% of retail traders are net long the FTSE 100. Downside exposure has decreased by 4.37% over a daily basis while increasing 48.85% compared to last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes is offering a mixed trading bias.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
What are the top trading opportunities in 2021?
Get My Guide
DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Retail Trader Bets Flashing Some Warnings

Technical Analysis

The FTSE 100 remains in a consolidative state as the 6879 – 6964 resistance zone holds while rising support from November slowly guides the index higher. Prices recently closed above the 6624 inflection point, perhaps opening the door to revisiting 6964. But, the latter risks sending the UK benchmark stock index lower.

FTSE 100 Daily Chart

DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Retail Trader Bets Flashing Some Warnings

FTSE 100 Chart Created in Trading View

S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 64% of retail traders are net long the S&P 500. Upside exposure climbed by 15.67% and 7.39% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net short.

Advertisement
DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Retail Trader Bets Flashing Some Warnings

Technical Analysis

Negative RSI divergence is warning that the S&P 500 may turn lower as upside momentum fades. The broader uptrend seems to be maintained by rising support from March – see chart below. Given the distance to the trendline, there may be room for losses in the near-term before there is a chance for the index to resume gains.

S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart

DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Retail Trader Bets Flashing Some Warnings

S&P 500 Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from February 17th Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES