We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Yen to Resume 5-Year Rise vs. NZ Dollar If Chart Setup Holds

Yen to Resume 5-Year Rise vs. NZ Dollar If Chart Setup Holds

2020-01-10 03:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist


  • NZD/JPY testing five-year downtrend resistance after risk-on bounce
  • Head and Shoulders pattern, trend line break hint topping in the works
  • Confirmation on a break of neckline support expected to expose 70.00
Top Trading Opportunities in 2020
Top Trading Opportunities in 2020
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Get Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast
Get My Guide

The New Zealand Dollar has been trending lower against the Japanese Yen since topping in December 2014. In May 2018, sellers pushed prices below rising trend line support based from the post-crisis low in early 2009, suggesting that a structural bearish bias had been established.

Prices are now retesting downward-sloping resistance defining the long-term decline having bounced from a seven-year low amid broadly improving risk appetite across financial markets in the fourth quarter of 2019. This barrier is reinforced by former support in the 72.36-73.25 area dating back to August 2015.

Yen to Resume 5-Year Rise vs. NZ Dollar If Chart Setup Holds

NZD/JPY monthly chart created with TradingView

Zooming in to the daily chart suggests a reversal from resistance may be getting underway. Prices broke below rising trend line support set form mid-November and now appear to be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern.

Confirmation of reversal on a daily close below the H&S neckline at 71.73 would imply a measured downside objective near the 70.00 figure. Perhaps most interestingly, such a move is likely to clear support established from late August, painting recent gains as corrective and triggering long-term downtrend resumption.

New Zealand Dollar vs Japanese Yen price chart - daily

NZD/JPY monthly chart created with TradingView

Invalidating the H&S setup and the broader case for topping probably requires a daily close 73.54, the December 27 high. Neutralizing the long-term bearish bias demands a breach of the five-year falling trend line, now at 74.74.

JPY Forecast
JPY Forecast
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Get Your Free JPY Forecast
Get My Guide


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.