News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.22% France 40: 0.15% US 500: 0.04% Wall Street: -0.03% Germany 30: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/FPJs0yOWtC
  • LIVE NOW: Join Technical Strategist @MBForex for his Mid-Week Market Update to review the setups we're tracking into today's #Fed Decision! - https://t.co/NG58yc4oIJ
  • The Federal Reserve meeting will be the highlight of the day and week, marking the last chance for some FX volatility before the summer lull kicks in. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/f7a2r3Xupz https://t.co/dPqOnqGa6v
  • From my Twitter poll, it seems more than half of those that responded believe there will be no change in either Fed tone/outlook today. Taper announcement voted by 27% and only 12% expect a dot plot shift forward. #FOMC https://t.co/GIHlHkH5jr
  • Mid-Week Market Update webinar starting in 15mins on DailyFX! Reviewing the technical setups we're tracking into #FOMC - https://t.co/8SFBJxwo30
  • Average of core inflation at 2.3%. $USDCAD move lacking conviction given FOMC later today https://t.co/UG9xaa8RUE
  • RT @RiskReversal: This week on @macrosetup from @nadex👉 @GuyAdami and I weigh in on the "most important" Fed meeting of our post-pandemic l…
  • 🇨🇦 Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAY) Actual: 2.8% Expected: 2.4% Previous: 2.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • 🇺🇸 Building Permits MoM (MAY) Actual: -3% Previous: -1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • 🇺🇸 Housing Starts MoM (MAY) Actual: 3.6% Previous: -12.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
European Stocks May Fall as German Bunds Rise to Start 2020

European Stocks May Fall as German Bunds Rise to Start 2020

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GERMAN BUND, EURO STOXX 50 – Talking Points:

  • 10-year German bund may be bottoming as Euro Stoxx 50 forms a top
  • Reversals hinted in chart positioning would mark risk-off start to 2020
  • Confirmation on breaks of trend-setting technical barriers still pending

Technical positioning in bellwether Eurozone stock and bond benchmarks warns that a broad-based turn in recent price trends may be brewing ahead. If it materializes, the implied reversal would speak to defensive shift in traders’ market outlook.

First, Germany’s 10-year Bund – the Eurozone’s go-to regional “safe haven” asset – may be bottoming. The appearance of positive RSI divergence as prices test support at 102.17 suggests downside momentum is ebbing, hinting that an upturn may not be far behind.

Confirmation on a daily close above trend line resistance guiding the move lower since early September – now at 102.81 – would suggest a reversal is underway. Former support in the 104.19-47 zone would then enter the spotlight as the next upside hurdle of significance.

German Bund price chart - daily

German Bund daily chart created with TradingView

The setup in the Euro Stoxx 50 stock index seems to be showing the mirror image of the same dynamic. Negative RSI divergence on a test of resistance at 3778.50 – the December 16 high – suggests the impetus for gains may be unraveling. This could precede a downturn.

Slipping below resistance-turned-support at 3733.50 would put rising channel support defining the uptrend from mid-August lows in focus. Clearing that barrier on a daily closing basis would then mark confirmation of a sea change, setting the stage for follow-on weakness.

Euro Stoxx 50 price chart - daily

Euro Stoxx 50 daily chart created with TradingView

EURO STOXX 50, BUND TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES