News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD awakens, placing GBP/USD on the backfoot, while EUR/GBP cracks 0.90. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection -
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
Bitcoin Price's Turn Higher May Be Rooted in Lira and Peso Weakness

Bitcoin Price's Turn Higher May Be Rooted in Lira and Peso Weakness

2019-04-25 18:50:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Cryptocurrency markets have had a strong start to 2019: Bitcoin is up 44% year-to-date.

- Meanwhile, USDARS is up 19.6% this year, while USDTRY has added 12.2%.

- Since the start of September 2018, the correlation between Bitcoin and USDTRY has been a statistically significant 0.78.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Cryptocurrency markets have had a decently strong start to 2019 have a putrid 2018. Last year saw Bitcoin prices lose over -72% over their value, in line with performance seen in Litecoin (-86%), Ether (-81%), and Ripple (-81%), among others.

One possible explanation may be that much of 2018 was marked by steady improvement in demand for risky assets; safe haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and US Dollar were out of vogue up until September 2018.

Cryptocurrency Markets Have Had a Good 2019 So Far

Starting in September 2018, cryptocurrency markets started to turn around, in part, it appears, due to a desire for safe haven assets – but specifically, emerging market investors seeking foreign assets that provided liquidity in non-local denominated currencies.

Pressure in emerging market currencies at the end of 2018 and during the first several months of 2019 have helped propel cryptocurrencies to a strong start this year. Bitcoin prices are up 44% year-to-date while Litcoin prices are up 146%.

Gains May Be Rooted in Developments in Argentina and Turkey

At the start of April, when we last checked in on Bitcoin prices and USDTRY, Turkey had just held local elections. At the time we said that “several minor obstacles appearing at the same time can prove a formidable obstacle.” Now, a new obstacle has appeared: the central bank’s independence appears increasingly under pressure after they decided to remove their rate hike bias.

Per the Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor, central bank independence is a crucial feature of long-term stability for a currency.

Reflecting this new obstacle, traders have pushed Turkish 5-year CDS prices to their highest level since September 2018 – the tail end of the last time EM FX contagion fears roiled currency markets. But it’s not just Turkey: Argentinian 5-year CDS have exploded higher in recent days to indicate the most credit risk since May 2015.

Reflecting economic and political stability, and in turn, the increase in credit risk in recent weeks, USDARS is up 19.6% this year, while USDTRY has added 12.2%.

USDTRY vs Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (September 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

bitcoin price, usdtry price, bitcoin chart, bitcoin forecast, usdtry chart, usdtry forecast, usdtry price forecast

It still holds that the recent Bitcoin rally has gone together with weakness in EM FX, particularly with the Turkish Lira. Since the start of September 2018, the correlation between Bitcoin and USDTRY has been a statistically significant 0.78. Meanwhile, the rolling one-month and three-month correlations are 0.77 and 0.92, respectively.

In other words, when the Lira has rallied, Bitcoin has weakened (September to December 2018); when the Lira has depreciated, Bitcoin has strengthened (January to present).

It thus still holds that if Bitcoin prices and the cryptocurrency market in general are going to stay with their bullish turn in 2019, the best hope remains more weakness in emerging market currencies like the Argentinian Peso and Turkish Lira.


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.