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  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
Dollar Charts – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD Reversals to Follow Through

Dollar Charts – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD Reversals to Follow Through

Paul Robinson, Strategist

US Dollar Technical Highlights

  • Dollar to continue to trade higher in days ahead
  • Levels and lines to watch in several pairs

For longer-term trading forecasts, educational material, and other helpful tools, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Dollar to continue to trade higher in days ahead

The US Dollar index (DXY) reversed last week after hitting confluent support by way of a trend-line and the 200-day MA. The underside trend-line remains a line of significant interest as it holds together the bottom of a developing ascending wedge.

The wedge may take a couple of months or longer to fully mature, but for now there appears to be a solid gradually rising floor in the Dollar. The reversal candle from last week suggests there will at least be an attempt to trade higher in the days ahead.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart (Ascending wedge developing)

US Dollar Index (DXY) weekly chart, ascending wedge developing

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (Well supported, room to trade higher)

US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart, well supported, room to trade higher


The Euro, accounting for ~57% of the DXY, is expected to be the main driver here for the DXY and with that in mind a small bounce is expected to fail. With further weakness after last week’s late turnaround it seems reasonable in this low volatility environment to expect a move down to the mid to lower 11100s, but perhaps nothing more until market participants show up in earnest.

EURUSD Daily Chart (lower t-line support eyed)

EURUSD daily chart, lower t-line support eyed


Last week, USDCAD tested neckline support and saw good sponsorship by posting a key-reversal on the 19th. The rally so far out of the low has held solid power, looking for this to continue to in the days ahead with 13467 as a minor hurdle in a run to the 13570s/3665-area at some point.

USDCAD Daily Chart (further follow-through on inverse H&S)

USDCAD daily chart, further follow-through on inverse H&S


Aussie reversed after running into trend resistance from January 2018. This kept price within the confines of a downward developing wedge. More weakness this week will would have the pattern filling out even more, and while AUDUSD has been weak it may signal a bigger reversal higher if upward momentum can sustain out of the descending pattern. The bias in the short-term and longer, though, remains generally towards lower prices until Aussie can prove otherwise.

AUDUSD Daily Chart (Descending wedge to develop more on drop)

AUDUSD daily chart, descending wedge to develop more on drop


Kiwi has been a choppy mess for quite some time and this looks set to continue for a little while longer. Last week’s key reversal arrived right at the top-side trend-line of a developing big-picture wedge. The wedge is nearing the apex and due to break at any time. Once it does, look for a powerful move to ensue as pent up pressure built over months is set to release.

NZDUSD Daily Chart (Continue filling out big-picture wedge)

NZDUSD daily chart, continue filling out big-picture wedge

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.