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US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

2015-08-18 13:45:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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- US Dollar remains in a tight range versus the Euro, Yen, other major counterparts

- Our data suggests most traders tend to outperform in slower market conditions

- See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators

Receive the Weekly Volume at Price report via David’s e-mail distribution list.

The US Dollar remains in tight ranges versus Euro and other majors. Our data suggests traders tend to outperform in these market conditions; here are the major levels we’re watching.

EURUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro remains contained in a tight range versus the US Dollar as its recent run towards $1.12 stopped and reverse at the key volume-based resistance mark. Strong support remains at a comparable volume-based spike near $1.10, and a break below would likely target a move towards $1.08. Yet low forex volatility prices suggests the Euro will remain within its recent trading range.

GBPUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The British Pound has rallied sharply to major volume-based resistance starting at $1.5650, and continued failure here would push focus back to congestion support in the $1.54-1.55 range. As we noted last week, however, resistance can only hold so many times when so consistently tested. A break above $1.5650 would likely lead the pair towards the June highs near $1.5800.

USDJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Japanese Yen continues to trade in a narrow price range versus the US Dollar, and major volume-based congestion support at ¥123.50 seems likely to contain any declines. Resistance is at recent highs near ¥125.20, and it would likely take a significant shift in slow market conditions to force a meaningful break in either direction.

GBPJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The British Pound trades at major highs versus the Japanese Yen and key volume-based congestion levels near ¥195. Trading above said level makes major highs at ¥196 the next logical target, but a failure here sets up a move towards the top of a key volume congestion range near ¥193.

EURJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

A recent Euro reversal versus the Yen leaves it almost squarely at major volume-based support near ¥137, and low volatility makes a major breakdown less likely. Major resistance is the recent spike-high near ¥139, but trading below ¥137 would instead make a move towards comparable congestion near ¥135 the next likely target.

USDCHF

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar trades in a narrow range versus the Swiss Franc, and low forex market volatility makes continued range-bound price action fairly likely. Major support remains at SFr0.9650, and an unlikely breakdown would shift focus to comparable volume-based support at SFr0.9300. Recent range highs SFr0.9800 mark near-term resistance.

USDCAD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar trades comfortably above significant volume-based support versus the Canadian Dollar at the C$1.3000 mark, and recent spike-highs near C$1.3200 act as the logical short-term target. A breakdown would nonetheless shift attention towards major congestion starting near C$1.2700.

NZDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Trades in Tight Ranges - Here are Levels Worth Watching

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The New Zealand Dollar continues to trade just below major volume-based congestion in $0.6600-$0.6700 zone, and failure here keeps our focus on major lows closer to $0.6500. Low forex market volatility makes a major break in either direction relatively unlikely.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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