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Japanese Yen Forecast: Can USD/JPY Get Out of Its Own Way?

Japanese Yen Forecast: Can USD/JPY Get Out of Its Own Way?

2020-08-01 12:00:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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USD/JPY Highlights:

  • USD/JPY exploded higher on Friday into resistance
  • Tricky posturing clouds confidence on outlook

USD/JPY exploded higher on Friday into resistance

USD/JPY surged higher on Friday with the help of some intervention talk, rising off a pair of slopes from April and June. The nearly two-figure move pushed price back to resistance via the May and June lows right around the 10600-mark.

The surge does nothing to help clarify the picture, though. As it stands in fact it only makes the picture even uglier as the trend from the June high was developing somewhat nicely until the end of last week. Friday’s rocket higher may only have a short-term effect, but still strong momentum upward in a downward sloping trend muddles the picture.

If the 10600 threshold continues to act as a ceiling then perhaps the trend may reassert itself lower at some point with a clearer look. If, however, it is crossed and the upper parallel from the June high is met, then we could have a good risk/reward spot to look for shorts. If that breaks then the downward trend will be challenged and a long-bias may be the prudent approach.

All-in-all, the outlook is shrouded by uncertainty with risk/reward from either side of the tape not particularly appealing as we head into a new week.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart (spike into downtrend keeps things uncertain)

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