Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Crude Oil Price Analysis: Supportive Trend Breached; Break or Fake?

Crude Oil Price Analysis: Supportive Trend Breached; Break or Fake?

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: Neutral

  • Crude oil breaks supportive uptrend.
  • Will 200-dma provide support or resistance?

Q4 Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities

Crude Oil Sell-Off Brings Trend into Question

A sharp sell-off in crude today has seen the supportive uptrend off the October 3 low broken. Crude oil fell by 2% Friday and now trades at the lowest level this week. Traders will now have to see if this is a false breakout, similar to the one on November 19/20, or a confirmed break of the recent uptrend. Oil is being sold off on heightened fears of an escalation of the US-China trade dispute and worries over next week’s OPEC+ meeting.

Bearish traders will point to today’s price action sending oil below both the 20- and 200-dma, breaking short-term and long-term bullish sentiment, as confirmation of the sell-off which is taking a familiar pattern to markets over the last five months. This is the third time since early June that a rally from the $50.5 - $51.0/bbl. level has produced a series of higher lows before a sharp break lower.

Today’s break looks bearish and a close at or near its low will add further downside pressure to price action and bring the 50-dma at $55.66/bbl. and the November 20 low at $54.68/bbl. into view.

A close back above trend resistance, and the 200-dma, would help steady oil bull’s nerves, while a confirmed close above the November 22 candle at $58.60/bbl should see crude move higher still.

For a full rundown of all market moving economic data and events, including next week’s important OPEC+ meeting on December 5-6, see the DailyFX Calendar

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (February – November 29, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 57% net-short US crude oil, a bullish contrarian bias. However daily and weekly positional shifts give us a bearish bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.