We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Tune in to @CVecchioFX 's #webinar at 7:30 AM ET/12:30 PM GMT to prepare for major event risk in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/d5MAOTwJAg https://t.co/L9yxAl0DQh
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.99% Gold: 0.75% Oil - US Crude: -3.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/CWSxvMvssa
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.39% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.20% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.29% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.66% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/RfsfqrEjxz
  • RT @Schuldensuehner: Ouch! Ifo casts doubt on German economic turnaround. Business climate fall from Dec and came in at 95.9 below consensu…
  • RT @iv_technicals: $VIX curve now inverted 👀 Here's the 1-week shift: https://t.co/comrpraJUe
  • RT @lisaabramowicz1: Someone seems to be cashing out of high-yield debt in a big way. The $18 billion U.S. high-yield bond ETF $HYG saw its…
  • Natural Gas trading is popular among traders due to its volatility. How can you trade this? Find out here: https://t.co/qbLCv6RP0H https://t.co/4igP9Fq2S7
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -1.66% US 500: -1.67% Germany 30: -2.26% France 40: -2.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/mHYe7I3WLO
  • EUR/USD Price: A Decline Then a Possible Correction – Euro vs USD Outlook More details in the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2020/01/27/EURUSD-Price-A-Decline-Then-a-Possible-Correction-Euro-vs-USD-Outlook-MK.html?CHID=9&QPID=917714 https://t.co/AGOo5PibPg
  • Tune in to @nickcawley1 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/11:30 AM GMT to prepare for key UK events and markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/xewSeUoDaT https://t.co/ZHX85nxXUu
Australian Dollar (AUD) Outlook: AUDUSD Still Looking Into The Abyss?

Australian Dollar (AUD) Outlook: AUDUSD Still Looking Into The Abyss?

2019-05-03 22:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

Australian Dollar Price (AUD) Talking Points:

  • 2019 AUDUSD lower lows remain in place.
  • 0.6834 may not be attainable in a sell-off quite yet but it remains ominously close.

The DailyFX Q2EUR Forecast is available to download including our short- and medium-term look at the Australian Dollar.

Fundamental Forecast for Aussie Dollar (AUD): Neutral

The outlook for the Australian dollar (AUD) is neutral after recent heavy falls but further losses cannot be discounted, especially if the RBA surprises on Tuesday next week and cuts rates from their current level record low level of 1.50%. The markets are seeing this as a 50/50 call, leaving further downside likely if the central bank cuts its cash target rate.

The AUDUSD chart, whether it’s the daily, weekly or monthly, looks weak with worries that a break of the January 2, 2019 ‘spike low’ and January 2016 low, between 0.6815 and 0.6834 would see the pair trading at levels last seen just over 10 years ago.

On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average has capped any upside move and continues to suggest lower prices. The 0.7000 ‘big figure’ headline may be giving the pair some short-term support, but this is not enough when the charts look so weak, especially with important horizontal support area between 0.6815 and 0.6834 so close. The market looks oversold currently, but is not at its worst levels, which may give the pair some short-term support.

Break downs to multi-year lows are normally slightly drawn out affairs as bulls and bears fight to get dominance. It is unlikely – but not impossible – that another ‘spike low’ may occur but this will be accompanied by a major fundamental headline and will be visible and actionable. While the outlook for AUDUSD is neutral in the short-term – with a negative bias – looking ahead the only way that the pair recover will likely come from US dollar weakness, not Aussie dollar strength. Upside moves will be met by old support levels that have turned into resistance around 0.7050 ahead of this Tuesday’s high print at 0.7070. The 20- and 50-day moving averages around 0.7095 will provide another level of resistance.

AUDUSD Daily Price Chart - May 3, 2019

AUDUSD

IG Client Sentiment data show 76.0% of traders are net-long AUDUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest that AUDUSD prices may fall further.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.