News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/ITdDUGoAL0
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/eF0XS79LgK
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/gaYbbaTnpb
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/HCvzbjEkr6
  • Get our analysts’ view on the key fundamentals for indices in Q2. Download now. https://t.co/Etdyanp76f https://t.co/n2wxfyMsJt
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
Australian Dollar (AUD) Outlook: AUDUSD Still Looking Into The Abyss?

Australian Dollar (AUD) Outlook: AUDUSD Still Looking Into The Abyss?

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Australian Dollar Price (AUD) Talking Points:

  • 2019 AUDUSD lower lows remain in place.
  • 0.6834 may not be attainable in a sell-off quite yet but it remains ominously close.

The DailyFX Q2EUR Forecast is available to download including our short- and medium-term look at the Australian Dollar.

Fundamental Forecast for Aussie Dollar (AUD): Neutral

The outlook for the Australian dollar (AUD) is neutral after recent heavy falls but further losses cannot be discounted, especially if the RBA surprises on Tuesday next week and cuts rates from their current level record low level of 1.50%. The markets are seeing this as a 50/50 call, leaving further downside likely if the central bank cuts its cash target rate.

The AUDUSD chart, whether it’s the daily, weekly or monthly, looks weak with worries that a break of the January 2, 2019 ‘spike low’ and January 2016 low, between 0.6815 and 0.6834 would see the pair trading at levels last seen just over 10 years ago.

On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average has capped any upside move and continues to suggest lower prices. The 0.7000 ‘big figure’ headline may be giving the pair some short-term support, but this is not enough when the charts look so weak, especially with important horizontal support area between 0.6815 and 0.6834 so close. The market looks oversold currently, but is not at its worst levels, which may give the pair some short-term support.

Break downs to multi-year lows are normally slightly drawn out affairs as bulls and bears fight to get dominance. It is unlikely – but not impossible – that another ‘spike low’ may occur but this will be accompanied by a major fundamental headline and will be visible and actionable. While the outlook for AUDUSD is neutral in the short-term – with a negative bias – looking ahead the only way that the pair recover will likely come from US dollar weakness, not Aussie dollar strength. Upside moves will be met by old support levels that have turned into resistance around 0.7050 ahead of this Tuesday’s high print at 0.7070. The 20- and 50-day moving averages around 0.7095 will provide another level of resistance.

AUDUSD Daily Price Chart - May 3, 2019

AUDUSD

IG Client Sentiment data show 76.0% of traders are net-long AUDUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest that AUDUSD prices may fall further.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES