News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (MAY) Actual: 92.1 Previous: 95.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (MAY) Actual: 102.6 Previous: 103.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (MAY) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 103.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (MAY) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 95.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • Crude Oil Prices Risk Forming a “Lower High” on Viral Concerns, Stockpiles Fall https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/28/Crude-Oil-Prices-Risk-Forming-a-Lower-High-on-Viral-Concerns-Stockpiles-Fall-.html https://t.co/A8H9tICkse
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 94.37%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 75.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/8RDJ927lny
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/DtSCe17vPg
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.14% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/5vk2L17zcp
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.09% Germany 30: -0.10% FTSE 100: -0.12% US 500: -0.14% Wall Street: -0.21% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0RLz8L0Goo
  • Despite the IMF's update to 2021 growth forecasts and strong earnings after hours, risk trends are pacing like markets are worried. Traders are likely awaiting the Fed, and that has me look at $EURUSD and $USDCAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/07/28/EURUSD-and-USDCAD-Reversals-More-Suitable-to-Conditions-but-Beholden-to-Fed.html https://t.co/ywxD4wRAYX
USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • USDJPY fake out
  • NZDUSD extends rebound from long term support
  • USDCAD big top?

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox several times a week.

--For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk

EUR/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“EURUSD continues to hold up at the line that extends off of the 2000 and 2001 lows. The slope of this line is similar to the slope of the line that connects the 1995 (synthetic rate) and 2008 highs. A parallel extended from the 2000 low creates a channel so don’t dismiss resistance breaks on the daily (from long term support).”

-“EURUSD faces a big test from the top of the range and 200 DMA. A breakout would target 1.1811-1.2086.” The rate broke out but failed to extend higher and the weekly chart is left with a nasty bearish reversal candle at the 52 week average. Is this how the broader decline resumes or is a wider period of range activity in order? The latter seems more likely given the presence of the mentioned long term trendline support. Support is estimated in the mid-1.0800s. Resistance is estimated in the mid-1.1400s (May and June high are 1.1435/65).

GBP/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The week that ended 8/28 engulfed the prior 6 weeks and may set the stage for a test of 1.4500 given the false break above the line that extends off of the 2014 and 2015 highs. The false breakout took place at the 55 week average, which is downward sloping and gives credence to a long term bearish view.

-“A 3+ month head and shoulders top also completed in late August as well. This rally has resulted in a re-test of the neckline. If the bigger move is lower, then GBPUSD needs to roll over now.” Focus is on the mid 1.4000s. 1.5089, 1.4960 and 1.4860 are possible supports for counter trend moves (bounces).

AUD/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100.”

-“The immediate picture is bearish. Range expansion objectives yield .7143 and .6902.” The latter level was nearly reached. The next long term area of interest is probably the 1999 high and 2004 low at .6741/72 but COT observations and a tweezer bottom candlestick pattern on the weekly chart indicate reversal risk towards .7440.

NZD/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”

-A rally to .6710/50 may take place before NZDUSD obtains the long term double top target (also be aware of the 2004 and 2006 lows at .5909/27 and the 1999 high at .5673.) as the rate has spent the last 5 weeks at long term support and the August 24th crash low is still ‘the low’. Exceeding .6455 (daily close basis) would trigger a 4 week double bottom. NZDUSD is also trading ‘well’ in the face of deeply negative sentiment towards commodities.

USD/JPY

Weekly

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“June’s trade produced a monthly key reversal in USDJPY.” USDJPY has snapped back but a break above the long term resistance confluence (uptrend resistance and the line from the 1995 and 2005 highs) is still needed in order to minimize downside risk.”

-“Weakness below 123 has triggered a failed short term bullish pattern and consequently a bearish signal. Given where USDJPY is declining from (significant long term resistance), this decline could be precipitous.” Precipitous indeed. USDJPY is holding its 55 week average (was also support in 2014). The rate last closed below this average in October 2012; over 40 big figures ago! In any case, weakness below the long term lower parallel is needed in order to signal that a MAJOR behavior change has taken place and that USDJPY is headed back towards long term support near 100. Until then, embrace the range. Shorter term, ‘fake out risk’ was highlighted in this video on 10/1.

USD/CAD

Weekly

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“USDCAD has traded into the 1995 and 1996 lows. The next measured level is the 161.8% extension of the March-May range at 1.3399. The 61.8% retracement of the 2002-2007 decline looms at 1.3462 but a top could be in at this week’s high given the 9/24 reversal and divergence with Crude Oil.”

-The high this week (week that ended 10/2) is a few pips shy of the mentioned long term Fibonacci retracement at 1.3462. A weekly key reversal has also formed. USDCAD may have just made an important top.

USD/CHF

Weekly

USDJPY Slammed and Jammed; Bears Beware

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“USDCHF traded to its best level since March this week and formed a weekly key reversal. This action serves as a warning to bulls that the rally from May is nearing completion. Major resistance is seen slightly higher from the 14 year trendline and 2012 high of .9971 over the next few weeks but the USDCHF top this week was right at the 78.6% retracement of the March-May decline.”

-Alternating and contracting moves since March may compose a triangle. The implication is that USDCHF tightens a bit more before attempting a directional move. Which way? I don’t know but if it’s higher then the 2006-2008 trendline comes into play and a break above there would be significant (as in going to 1.20+).

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES