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Possible Long Term NZDUSD Double Top and a Long Term EURGBP Support Zone

Possible Long Term NZDUSD Double Top and a Long Term EURGBP Support Zone

2014-12-23 00:02:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

In this space last year, I presented ideas on EURNZD, AUDNZD, USDCAD, USDNOK and crude. EURNZD didn’t work and AUDNZD is actually net unchanged on the year (as of December 5th). USDCAD, USDNOK, and crude worked well. The point in referencing last year’s ideas is twofold; NZD still looks poised to fall apart and the best ideas are the ones that others aren’t looking at (don’t recall many USDNOK bulls and crude bears for example). So, 2 ideas that stick out for 2015 are short NZDUSD and long EURGBP (from lower).

NZDUSD Monthly

Possible Long Term NZDUSD Double Top and a Long Term EURGBP Support Zone

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD exhibits a possible double top with the 2011 and 2014 highs. A break of .7370 would complete the pattern and yield an objective of .5900, which is in line with the 2004 and 2006 lows. Watch out for .7100-.7200 as support though (1988 high, 1996 high, February 2004 high, December 2005 high, March 2011 low), especially in June (intersection with a slope line). The underside of a broken parallel could come into play as resistance early in the year near .8200.

EURGBP Monthly

Possible Long Term NZDUSD Double Top and a Long Term EURGBP Support Zone

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURGBP is interesting from a pure ‘levels’ perspective. A head and shoulders completed in December 2007. The breakout level from that pattern is .7253. Interestingly, the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2000 low is .7259. The decline from the 2008 high would consist of 2 zigzags (7 waves labeled a-b-c-x-a-b-c) at .7345. Basically, we’re left with .7250-.7350 as a zone that could produce an important low in the cross. I’ll note that the line off of the 2000 and 2007 lows (not shown) is at about .7537 in January and increases 11 pips per month.

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