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EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

2015-04-10 17:42:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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  • EURUSD largest weekly decline since September 2011
  • GBPUSD 1.4350 back in play again
  • USDJPY 121.10 looms large

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EUR/USD

Weekly

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-EURUSD rolled over at slope resistance but several longer term technical observations are worthy of note; the rate found low at an important long term level (line off of 2008 and 2010 lows) and the ownership profile (as per COT) is at a record. The speculative crowd has never been more bearish…ever. Such conditions typically precede important reversals…although not necessarily right away. A break above the resistance lines (old support) would indicate that behavior has changed. Until then, there is nothing bullish to work with.

GBP/USD

Weekly

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-This week’s decline on high volume brings 1.4350 back into play. That level is represented by a slope confluence as well as the 1.4950-1.5551 range expansion. Only a move back above this week’s high would suggest that the rate is not headed lower.

AUD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-AUDUSD continues to trade between well-defined slope lines but beware of a possible broadening bottom (very difficult pattern to trade).

-Trade outside of the bearish upper parallel that has contained strength since late October would shift focus to a former support line (turned resistance in January) near .8180.

NZD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“NZDUSD traded to the 61.8% retracement of its 3 year range today (.7929) and the next level of interest probably isn’t until the 2013 Labor Day gap at .7722. One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”

-Near term, a failed double bottom triggered 2 weeks ago. Failed patterns can serve as triggers in the other direction (in this case down).

USD/JPY

Weekly

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“Continue to favor a broad range as 119.80-120.70 as resistance and 116.40-117.10 as support. A move through either one of these zones would define target zones of 124-128 and 110-114.”

-Near term, 120.60-121.10 looms as resistance. This zone is defined by late December highs, the January high, support in mid-March, and former slope support.

USD/CAD

Weekly

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDCAD is either consolidating before another push higher or forming an important top. There is no way to know what the outcome will be ahead of time. A break higher would set targets at 1.3075 and 1.3246. A break lower would indicate an important reversal and set targets at 1.2074 and 1.1903.

USD/CHF

Weekly

EURUSD Largest Weekly Decline Since September 2011

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDCHF has reversed from 9 year trendline resistance. Focus is on the median line (about .9300) that extends off of the 2012 high. This line crosses through highs in 2013 and the October 2014 low. The 52 week MA is near this line as well.

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