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Price & Time: Kiwi Breakdown Continues

Price & Time: Kiwi Breakdown Continues

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD stalls at key Gann level
  • Gold holding above important near-term support
  • NZD/USD trades at lowest level in almost 4-years

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi Breakdown Continues

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD recovery stalled near the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.1415 on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the euro while above 1.1210
  • A push above the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.1415 is needed to set off a new leg higher
  • A minor turn window is seen on Friday
  • A close under 1.1210 would turn us negative on the euro again

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1210.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.1210

1.1260

1.1300

*1.1415

1.1520

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: Kiwi Breakdown Continues

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GOLD remains in consolidation mode below 1306
  • Our near-term trend bias is positve while above 1270
  • A close over 1306 is needed to reinstill upside momentum in the metal
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen here
  • A close below 1270 would turn us negative on XAU/USD

GOLD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1270.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GOLD

1260

*1270

1276

1286

*1306

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi Breakdown Continues

The range break we were looking for in NZD/USD (Read HERE) has played out rather nicely with exchange rate losing almost 4 big figures over the past week. A big part of our reasoning for turning negative on NZD was the sentiment picture as the Daily Sentiment Index early last week was perfectly neutral at 50% bulls. Such neutral sentiment is pretty typical when markets settle into clear defined ranges as the “range trading” mentality takes over. However, neutral or positive sentiment at range lows also shows that a large segment of the market is not positioned or expecting a break of the range and this is often times precisely the “fuel” that triggers a range expansion. This certainly looks to have been the case with the Kiwi. A general rule of thumb with range breaks is that they should initially extend about the height of the range. That would be about .7180.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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