Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points
- AUD/USD | Dollar Liquidity Concerns Weigh on Aussie
- Australian Dollar on Course for Worst Weekly Decline Since 2011
- Near-term support at 0.6270.
AUD/USD | The Australian Dollar has come under heavy selling throughout the week set to post its largest weekly loss since September 2011 (at the time of writing). This has come amid the persistent decline in risk appetite, however, the bulk of the move had stemmed from Thursday’s session as fears over scarce dollar liquidity prompted a flight to cash with the US Dollar gaining. Last week, we noted that the Aussie remained fragile with equity markets tilted to the downside and we maintain this view.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Weekly | 29% | -46% | 0% |
On the technical front, near term support is situated at 0.6270, which marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. However, a break below leaves the currency at risk of hitting the global financial crisis level given that there is little in the notable support. That said, the low 0.60s had been the area of interest for the RBA to intervene back in 2008.
Implied Weekly range (0.6080-0.6500)
| Support | Resistance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6270 | 76.4% Fib | 0.6400 | - |
| 0.6200 | - | 0.6500 | Implied Weekly High |
| 0.6022 | Oct’08 Low | 0.6680 | Weekly High |
AUD/USD Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame
Source: IG Charts
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
