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US Dollar Rebound Stalls as S&P 500 Drops Below Key Support

US Dollar Rebound Stalls as S&P 500 Drops Below Key Support

2013-08-15 01:46:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 has dropped below key chart support, hinting a larger downward reversal may be in progress. A sharp two-day rebound in the US Dollar has stalled.

Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket via Mirror Trader as an alternative. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices advanced as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break above initial resistance at 10735, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, has exposed 107787, marked by the underside of a rising trend line set from mid-June and the 38.2% level. A push higher beyond that aims for the 50% level at 10830. Alternatively, a move back below 10735 eyes the August 8 lowat 10650.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rebound_Stalls_as_SP_500_Drops_Below_Key_Support_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Rebound Stalls as S&P 500 Drops Below Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick. A move below the May 22 highat 1687.40 has exposed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1674.10. A further push beneath that eyes the 38.2% level at 1652.10. Alternatively, a move back above 1687.40 aims for the underside of a broken rising channel set from mid-July, now at 1698.00.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rebound_Stalls_as_SP_500_Drops_Below_Key_Support_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Rebound Stalls as S&P 500 Drops Below Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke resistance at a falling trend line set from early May, exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1336.76. A break above that targets the 50% level at 1356.52. Near-term support is at 1312.32, the 23.6% level, with a reversal back beneath that eying the August 7 low at 1272.81.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rebound_Stalls_as_SP_500_Drops_Below_Key_Support_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Rebound Stalls as S&P 500 Drops Below Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices have been edging lower within the bounds of what may be a Flag chart pattern, a setup indicative of counter-trend correction preceding resumption of the longer-term advance. A push above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 106.04 has exposed the Flag top at 106.98. A push beyond that targets the 38.2% level at 108.40. Alternatively, a move back below 106.04 aims for the August 8 low at 102.21, followed by the Flag bottom at 101.85.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rebound_Stalls_as_SP_500_Drops_Below_Key_Support_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Rebound Stalls as S&P 500 Drops Below Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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