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COT: Crude Oil Speculative Long Swelling (Again), More CAD Buyers, EUR Sellers

COT: Crude Oil Speculative Long Swelling (Again), More CAD Buyers, EUR Sellers

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Crude oil large speculators buy at most aggressive pace since December, rising toward record
  • CAD large traders buy for 10th week in a row, adding fuel for a down-move
  • Euro selling for second week in a row despite rising prices, key reversal suggests more to come

Check out the Q3 Forecasts for our outlook on currencies, commodities, and equity indices.

Every Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows futures traders’ positioning as it stands for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below are the net positions of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.); the change in their positioning from the prior week and where the net position stands compared to its 52-week range.

Noteworthy developments

Crude oil – Despite crude oil only experiencing a relatively modest amount of strength, large speculators have been snatching up contracts for a fifth straight week at an aggressive pace. It was the largest one-week increase since December. At 487k contracts held the position size is working its way back towards the record of 557k contracts held back in February. This doesn’t appear to bode well for the commodity as large traders once again move towards becoming overly optimistic about where crude oil is heading.

Canadian dollar – Large speculators continued buying for a 10th week in a row, as the once record short position in May which turned positive back on the week of 7/21 has grown to the largest net long position since January 2013. While CAD has already been turning lower over the past week there is fuel for further losses as longs late to the party may look to sell unprofitable positions.

Euro – Large speculators decreased their massive long holdings (82k+ contracts) for a second week in a row despite price continuing to rise. The selling has been minimal but net positioning remains at one of the highest levels since 2011. EURUSD put in a weekly key reversal bar off the 2010 low and on that we could see further weakness in the days and weeks ahead. With the trend-following crowd so heavily long there is fuel for a decline.

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

Paul conducts webinars every week Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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