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EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Sentiment Soft Eyes on Fed Meeting

EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Sentiment Soft Eyes on Fed Meeting

Justin McQueen, Strategist

EUR/USD Price Analysis & News

  • Euro Awaits the Fed Meeting
  • Euro Sentiment Soft But Conviction is Low
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Euro Awaits the Fed Meeting

A somewhat relatively subdued start to the week for the Euro, with the currency remaining anchored around the 1.18 handle. This morning’s IFO data missed expectations as supply chain constraints and concerns around the spread of the Delta variant continued to weigh on sentiment. However, the report was met with little in the way of a reaction in the Euro as market participants await key risk events, namely the Federal Reserve meeting.

Euro Sentiment Soft But Conviction is Low

Taking a look at the chart, support is situated at the 1.1750 area and while sentiment remains soft for the single currency, conviction looks to be on the low side and thus, we await the Fed meeting to provide some clarity on the outlook for the pair. On the topside, resistance resides at 1.1825 and 1.1850.

EUR/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Source: IG

IG Client Sentiment Signals a Mixed Euro Outlook

Retail trader data shows 60.65% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.54 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.69% higher than yesterday and 8.31% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.67% higher than yesterday and 10.10% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.

EUR/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% 9% 6%
Weekly 8% -6% 0%
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