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Coffee Prices at 6-Year High as Extreme Cold Weather Hits Brazil

Coffee Prices at 6-Year High as Extreme Cold Weather Hits Brazil

Margaret Yang, CFA, Former Strategist

Coffee Price Outlook

  • Arabica coffee futures advanced to the highest level seen in more than six years
  • Analysts forecast a significant draw in coffee inventories as supply falls this and next year
  • The freeze was the most widespread and severe in more than 25 years
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Coffee C Futures Traded in ICE – Day Chart

Chart by TradingView

Coffee C futures contracts – the world’s benchmark for Arabica coffee – surged to the highest level seen since December 2014. This happened after extreme cold weather hit Brazil’s major coffee fields. Temperatures in south Minas Gerais – the country’s most productive region - fell below zero degree Celsius, causing frost and freeze. This may severely impact coffee plants’ yield for this and next year. The usual average temperature at this time of the year in the region is at around 20 degree Celsius.

Brazil is the world’s top coffee exporter, contributing around 16% of the world’s coffee shipments during 2020 (chart below). Its major importers include the US (18.4%), Germany (16.8%), Italy (10%) and Japan (+7.7%). Arabica accounts for 70% of its total production, and Robusta accounts for the remaining 30%.

Weather forecasts suggest that unusual weather conditions could persist until the end of this month, paving the way for prices to aim at higher levels should the market anticipate wider damage. Technically, 200 may serve as a psychological resistance, breaching which may open the door for further gains toward 225 – the 2014 high.

The World’s Top 10 Coffee Exporting Countries During 2020

The World's Top 10 Coffee Exporters During 2020
1. Brazil: US$5 billion (15.9% of total coffee exports)
2. Switzerland: $2.9 billion (9.1%)
3. Germany: $2.6 billion (8.2%)
4. Colombia: $2.5 billion (8%)
5. Vietnam: $2.3 billion (7.5%)
6. Italy: $1.7 billion (5.4%)
7. France: $1.5 billion (4.8%)
8. Honduras: $1.1 billion (3.5%)
9. Belgium: $904.8 million (2.9%)
10. Indonesia: $821.9 million (2.6%)

Source: worldstopexports.com

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--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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