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British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD Treads Water, EUR/GBP Slips Lower on ECB Rethink

British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD Treads Water, EUR/GBP Slips Lower on ECB Rethink

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook

  • ECB may stay looser for longer, weighing on EURGBP.
  • Retail traders pare back long GBP/USD positions.
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The British Pound is fairly flat in early trade Monday with little or no drivers during the session to push Sterling. Cable trades around 1.3890, just off a fresh two-week high, aided by last Friday’s US dollar sell-off. Today’s range is very small and will likely remain so ahead of the US Treasury 10-year auction later in the session, where investors will try and drive UST yields higher in order to buy cheaper bonds. Tomorrow’s 30-year bond auction will also be closely watched, coming after the latest look at US inflation.

The UK calendar is fairly light with inflation and employment the headline numbers the headline makers this week. In addition to these high-level events, on Tuesday the latest BoE FPC minutes and Financial Stability Report are both released and worth noting.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (April 2020 – July 12, 2021)

GBP/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -12% 7% -2%
Weekly 4% 1% 2%
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Retail trader data show 54.38% of cable traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.19 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.80% higher than yesterday and 16.31% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.42% higher than yesterday and 22.12% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall.Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

One Sterling pair that is putting in a positive performance today is EUR/GBP with the pair looking to print a fresh three-month low. Over the weekend ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke to Bloomberg TV and suggested the central bank may change policy at this month’s meeting, with further supportive measures announced. This is weighing on the Euro across a range of currencies.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart (August 2020 – July 12, 2021)

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What is your view on Sterling– bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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