News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Notice

BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

Real Time News
  • NY Fed Treasury purchase schedule remains unchanged - BBG
  • Silver posting a strong session, now up 2.3% on the day. In recent trade, silver has struggled to break above the 50-day EMA $XAG $USD https://t.co/BetnXeKLj3
  • Bitcoin sets another record high. BTC/USD gains traction in anticipation of Coinbase IPO. Get your $btc market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/twYdOVA0hW https://t.co/EXlj1yWjyL
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Bostic Speech due at 19:15 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.28% Gold: 0.78% Oil - US Crude: 0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/YIgPqIQiO8
  • Mitch McConnell: There is no GOP support for repealing the tax bill $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.36%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.62%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XaeYYJbglR
  • The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) continues to trade lower after losing the uptrend from the February and March swing lows. Get your $USD market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/bvAaeNSVO3 https://t.co/tfKhSt85iN
  • Fed: - Directors of the Federal Reserve saw inflation increasing to 2% or even above
  • Fed: - Directors saw economic recovery gaining momentum - Directors are upbeat about the future, but there is still a lot of doubt - No change in the discount rate was requested by directors of all 12 districts
Euro Latest: EUR/USD Dives on Weak PMI, EU Recovery Optimism Questioned

Euro Latest: EUR/USD Dives on Weak PMI, EU Recovery Optimism Questioned

Justin McQueen, Analyst

EUR/USD Price Analysis & News

  • Reality Check for EU Recovery Optimists
  • EUR/USD Dives on Eurozone PMI

Reality Check for EU Recovery Optimists

The Euro is on the backfoot following broadly weaker than expected Eurozone PMI survey’s. Most notably the French PMI which posted a big miss across the board with the manufacturing sector moving back into contractionary territory. IHS Markit noted that the expansion in new orders had slowed to a snail’s pace, while there had been a reacceleration in the rate of job cutting. Meanwhile, German PMIs were more mixed with the manufacturing sector showing a slight improvement, partially offsetting the weakness observed in the services sector with Germany. That said, as I had alluded to following yesterday’s ECB minutes, caution is required for being married to the “Euro”phoria narrative.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Download our fresh Q3 EUR Dollar Forecast
Get My Guide

EUR/USD Reaction to French and German PMI’s

Euro Latest: EUR/USD Dives on Weak PMI, EU Recovery Optimism Questioned

Source: IG

DailyFX Calendar

Euro Latest: EUR/USD Dives on Weak PMI, EU Recovery Optimism Questioned

Risk-Reward Favours a EUR/USD Pullback.

Another factor that the EU has to contend with is the tedious trade negotiations with the UK, which thus far has shown little in the way of material progress. In turn, over optimism regarding a notable EU recovery should be treated with caution, particularly as EU fiscal stimulus has largely been priced in. That in mind, as bullish positioning in the Euro a crowded trade, risk-reward favours a pullback in the Euro against the depressed US Dollar. Alongside this, with the US/EU data surprise spread beginning to move in favour of the US, upside in the Euro may be hard to come by as little interest has been shown above 1.19.

Euro Bullish Trade is Crowded

Euro Latest: EUR/USD Dives on Weak PMI, EU Recovery Optimism Questioned Euro Latest: EUR/USD Dives on Weak PMI, EU Recovery Optimism Questioned

10 Most Popular Candlestick Patterns

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES