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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

2020-08-14 11:10:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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AUDUSD, AUDNZD Price Analysis & News

  • AUD/USD Stalling, However, AUD/NZD Still Favouring Upside to 1.1000
  • Repatriation Flows for AUD?
  • Risks to Australian Dollar Outlook

AUD/USD Stalling, However, AUD/NZD Still Favouring Upside to 1.1000

Overnight, the RBA Governor reiterated that he would like to see AUD lower, however, unlike its New Zealand counterpart, the RBA are not prepared to intervene to get the Aussie lower. However, while risk-reward in AUD/USD is potentially tilted to the downside, given that equity markets are beginning to stall. We still tilt towards a bullish bias in AUD/NZD, despite the cross already coming along way from where we had previously mentioned. In turn, 1.1000 remains in focus for the cross.

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Repatriation Flows for AUD?

Yesterday, it had been brought to my attention that search interest among Australian citizens regarding withdrawals from their super had picked up again, which may provide the potential for the Aussie to stay afloat on repatriation flows. Last year, it had been reported that investments into overseas assets had jumped 27% to $1.5 trillion, which in turn led to a net equity position where Australian ownership of foreign assets had exceeded foreign ownership of domestic assets by a record $141bln. As such, a withdrawal of supers may stand to benefit the Aussie, particularly against the Kiwi.

New Zealand Dollar Seasonally Weak in August

Risks to Australian Dollar Outlook

In the short-term, US-China tensions continue to linger and thus pose a risk to the Australian Dollar. Focus will be on tomorrow’s US-China phase 1 compliance review. However, greater attention will likely be placed on the issues that have occurred as of late, centering around national security concerns (TikTok & Huawei) and geopolitical tensions (HK & South China Sea) as opposed to the actual trade deal. As such, the rhetoric following the meeting will be watched closely with a downbeat outcome likely to place the Aussie on the backfoot.

AUD/USD BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -5% -1% -3%
Weekly 1% 5% 3%
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Topside Stalling for AUD/USD

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: IG

AUD/NZD Makes Key Topside Break on Monetary Policy Divergence

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: IG

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