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Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar: AUD/NZD Nearing Key Support

Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar: AUD/NZD Nearing Key Support

Justin McQueen, Analyst

AUD/NZD Price Analysis and News

  • AUD/NZD Reversal Nearing Critical Support
  • RBNZ Prefers a Lower NZD, while RBA is Comfortable with AUD
  • NZD TWI Overshoots RBNZ’s Forecast

AUD/NZD Reversal Nearing Critical Support

Since the rejection at the near 1.09 mark, which coincided with key trendline resistance, AUD/NZD has posted a modest reversal. However, while short-term risks remain biased to the downside, particularly as concerns over tensions between the US and China persist. We view that risks are for longer-term gains, particularly as the RBNZ has shown more unease over the appreciation of its currency relative to the RBA with the AUD.

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RBNZ Prefers a Lower NZD, while RBA is Comfortable with AUD

At the June monetary policy meeting, the RBNZ had noted that the appreciation in NZD had placed further pressure on export earnings, while also dampening the inflation outlook. In contrast, the RBA Governor recently stated that while they would want to see a lower AUD, current levels are not a problem at this point, signalling that the RBA is at ease with the appreciation in the AUD. That said, given the RBNZ’s more explicit rhetoric with regards to talking down the exchange rate, further upside in the NZD may be a struggle in the lead up to the August MPS, in which risks remain for further easing in policy (Key risk being direct purchases of foreign assets).

NZD/USD BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -16% -9% -12%
Weekly 5% 7% 6%
What does it mean for price action?
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Figure 1. NZD TWI Overshoots RBNZ’s Forecast

Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar: AUD/NZD Nearing Key Support

AUD/NZD Outlook

While the short-term outlook appears skewed to further losses on a break below 1.06, eyes will be on for key support situated at 1.0530-50, which offers attractive levels for a bounce-back in the pair.

AUD/NZD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe

Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar: AUD/NZD Nearing Key Support

Source: IG

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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